Africa has experienced some extraordinary upheavals in recent years. But not since the wind of independence blew across the continent in the 1960s has there been a sense of such radical change taking place in the continent.
The main development in 1997, however, was largely unexpected. This time last year, few had heard of Laurent Kabila, the rotund guerrilla leader and former comrade of Che Guevara who emerged from the hills of eastern Zaire with a vow to overthrow President Mobutu Sese Seko.
Yet within the space of seven months he and his rebels had marched across Africa's third largest country and into the capital, Kinshasa. At their approach, the cancer-stricken president fled for Morocco, where he died in disgrace.
From the ruins of Zaire was born the Democratic Republic of Congo (the existence of another state called Congo proved no impediment to the renaming of this vast swathe of central Africa) and the influence on the continent of France - an old ally of Mobutu - waned yet further. The downfall of Mobutu marked the end of an era and the disappearance of the last of the flamboyant, old-style dictators who shamelessly embezzled fortunes while their countrymen languished in abject misery.
In power since 1965, Mobutu had seemed stronger than he was. But behind the cynical exterior he was Yesterday's Man, impotent to resist as the insurgents drove the ill-disciplined Zairean army before them in panic. Behind the scenes were two important players. One was a man with a new vision for Africa, President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, who had overthrown Milton Obote to bring hope and growing prosperity to his country. The other was Paul Kagame, vice-president (and de facto leader) of Rwanda who, with Museveni's backing, had led the force which put an end to the 1994 genocide.
Kagame's first priority was to bring stability to his homeland by neutralising the Rwandan Hutu extremists who, from their bases in Zaire, threatened to overthrow his government. Rwanda and Uganda provided the inspiration, and just as importantly the arms, training and logistical support that were needed to topple Mobutu.
In addition, Rwanda also provided considerable manpower; though Rwandan soldiers were tolerated during the struggle, their presence in Kinshasa has been causing increasing problems for the Kabila regime during recent weeks.
Around Uganda are grouped other satellites of the new Africa: Ethiopia, freed from the brutal Marxist dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam; Eritrea, which achieved independence from Ethiopia after a long liberation struggle; Tanzania, under the leadership of the progressive Benjamin Mkapa; Angola, recovering from decades of civil war between a formerly Marxist government and the rebels of another dinosaur and old Mobutu crony, Jonas Savimbi; and, somewhat on the margins, Burundi, whose leader, Pierre Buyoya, though philosophically close to the new guard, remains a slight embarrassment by virtue of his access to power in a coup d'etat last year.
The new men of Africa seem qualitatively different from their predecessors: they are well-travelled and well-educated; untainted by the colonial period, they tend to be self-assured and independent; most of them have fought in the bush and know the values of struggle and commitment to a cause. They can also be ruthless in pursuit of their goals.
However, the transformation of the continent's political landscape, which this year culminated in the end of the Mobutu regime, did not bring about immediate peace. In fact, the civil war which soon afterwards erupted in the other Congo (Congo-Brazzaville as it is now sometimes called) would probably have been far less violent had it not been fuelled by the exodus of arms and men from across the river in Kinshasa. President Kabila has yet to achieve peace in his eastern region, where the anti-Mobutu insurgency began. Fighting has spread into western Uganda and in northern Uganda the bizarre Lord's Resistance Army is waging a campaign of terror with the support of the Islamic fundamentalist government of Sudan.
IN SUDAN itself, rebels of the southern Sudan People's Liberation Army continue their seemingly interminable struggle for self-determination against the Khartoum government. Most of the remaining Rwandan Hutus, who fled to refugee camps in Zaire to avoid retaliation for their part in the 1994 genocide, have returned home, though countless thousands have remained. No one knows how many were slaughtered by vengeful Tutsi soldiers from Laurent Kabila's army as they marched through the remote rainforest. The answer will probably never be known despite the investigations of a United Nations team which, after months of obstruction by the Kabila government, has just been allowed to start work.
Like the authorities in Kinshasa, the Tutsi leaders in Rwanda deny involvement in massacres of Hutu refugees in the Zairean interior. Of far more concern to the Rwandan government is the security situation within its own borders. Three and a half years after the genocide, the country is still locked in a vicious circle of murder and revenge. Despite the incarceration of some 120,000 people suspected of participation in the genocide, Rwanda has failed to lay to rest the spectre of ethnic hatred. Attacks by Hutu rebels have been on the increase in Rwanda in recent weeks. Not only have they become more frequent, they have also become more daring. From their bases in the Hutu stronghold of the north-west, rebels have launched raids, freeing hundreds of Hutu inmates from prison. The minority Tutsi-led government of neighbouring Burundi is similarly assailed by attacks from Hutu extremists and large areas of that country have become virtual no-go areas for the Tutsi security forces.
Conflict is certain to continue in both these small nations during the coming year. With the downfall of Mobutu, some observers murmured that President Daniel arap Moi of Kenya - in power for 19 years - could also be on the way out. Though not made in the Mobutu mould, Moi nonetheless favours an authoritarian "Big Man" style which looks increasingly outdated. The opposition, however, has little dynamism and there are few who believe President Moi will fail to win a fifth term in office when Kenyans go to the polls on December 29th. Though tension has been defused by the introduction of legal and constitutional reforms, there are still fears that the country's second multi-party elections could be marred by violence.