WARSAW – Opinion polls show acting Polish president Bronislaw Komorowski will comfortably win a presidential election set for June 20th following the death of President Lech Kaczynski.
Mr Komorowski automatically took the helm on Mr Kaczynski’s death in his capacity as speaker of parliament, number two in the state hierarchy. He is also the presidential candidate of prime minister Donald Tusk’s ruling Civic Platform (PO).
Mr Kaczynski, his wife Maria and almost 100 military and political officials were killed in an air crash in Russia earlier this month.
Opinion polls this week have shown that Mr Komorowski (57) will trounce his rivals for the presidency, a mainly ceremonial post.
Mr Kaczynski’s twin brother Jaroslaw (60), a former prime minister who heads the main opposition Law and Justice party (PiS), is expected to decide by Saturday whether to run. Analysts believe he would struggle to translate an upsurge of sympathy for his family after the crash into enough votes.
A TNS OBOP poll, conducted on April 19th among 1,000 respondents, gave Mr Komorowski 55 per cent of support against 32 per cent for Mr Kaczynski, if the latter decided to run.
The survey, published by the daily Fakt,showed Mr Komorowski handsomely defeating other potential candidates of PiS, as well as the small leftist opposition party SLD, whose candidate was among the 96 victims of the air crash.
The Super Expresstabloid published a Homo Homini poll showing Mr Komorowski would win 39.3 per cent against 18.2 per cent for Mr Kaczynski.
If no candidate wins more than 50 per cent of votes on June 20th, a second round of the election will be held on July 4th.
Mr Komorowski is a close ally of Mr Tusk, whose centrist PO backs market reforms such as privatisation, better ties with Russia and early membership of the euro.
“Komorowski still holds a very strong position,” said Jacek Kucharczyk, head of the Institute For Public Affairs. “It seems for now that the sympathy and compassion felt for the first couple do not automatically translate into support for PiS.”
Before the crash, polls showed Jaroslaw Kaczynski was the most distrusted politician in Poland. – (Reuters)