Abhisit Vejjajiva is now likely to gear up for a general election, writes CLIFFORD COONANin Bangkok
THOUSANDS OF red-shirted anti-government demonstrators ended their protest in Bangkok yesterday, but even as they filed away from their makeshift camps they swore they would be back unless the political system was reformed.
The battle of Bangkok may be over for now but other issues remains unresolved, and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra remains a powerful influence, despite the arrest warrant issued for him and other protest leaders yesterday.
Prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who badly lost face after protesters in the beach resort of Pattaya forced the abandonment of the Asean summit of Asian leaders, regained some of his lost credibility with the restoration of order yesterday and won the PR war because the two deaths were not linked to the army.
Thailand’s seemingly unresolvable political crisis is a face-off between monarchists, the army and Bangkok’s middle class on the one hand and the rural poor, loyal to Mr Thaksin, on the other.
Four anti-government protest leaders surrendered to the government after calling off the three-week siege, national police chief Pacharawat Wongsuwan said. But the “red shirt” demonstrators leaving their stronghold around Government House vowed the fight to get rid of Mr Abhisit was not over.
“We have to stop because we need to look after the lives of our supporters,” said Jatuporn Prompan, one of the leaders of the protesters.
The beleaguered prime minister, who has been in power for only four months, has bought some time with the resolution of the crisis. The fact that the crisis ended with so few casualties, and without the army opening fire on civilians, is a major plus for Mr Abhisit.
He has said he will not talk to Mr Thaksin, and that holding a snap election could cause more violence, but has promised to listen to the grievances of protesters.
“I’m not interested in making a deal with Thaksin. But I do listen to the concerns of some people who have joined the ‘red shirts’ in terms of democratic developments. In particular, if they are not satisfied with the constitution, if they think there may be some injustice in the system, I am happy to address those,” he said.
Although the red supporters lost the battle in Bangkok, this is not where their core support is to be found, and they have drawn international attention to their cause.
The collapse of the protests is a blow for Mr Thaksin, an industrial tycoon and former policeman, who is the only Thai leader ever to have won two elections.
Speaking by videophone to his supporters, the former prime minister made some extremely inflammatory comments in backing the protests, using words like “uprising” and “revolution”.
These are the kind of phrases which will not endear him to the monarchy and the hugely popular King Bhumipol Adulyadej, who tends to try and distance himself from domestic conflicts and only intervenes when it is absolutely necessary, is unlikely to approve.
There are also questions about whether Mr Thaksin, ousted in a military coup in 2006 which had the backing of the army, has the money to finance another bitter election fight, since his assets have been frozen in Thailand after his conviction last year for corruption and abuse of power.
What the Oxford-educated Mr Abhisit is now likely to do is to get his Democrat party into shape for an election battle with Mr Thaksin’s allies. While Mr Thaksin is hugely popular, the prime minister has proven adept at marshalling support within parliament, which means he may hold onto power if there is a snap election. A hung parliament is also a possibility, because Mr Thaksin is hugely popular in the countryside, and rural voters constitute the majority among Thailand’s 65 million people.
Regardless of the power plays at the top of the political food chain, the demonstrations were the latest blow to the fragile Thai economy, which is still reeling from last year’s unrest and the effects of the global recession.