MIDDLE EAST:WHEN INFRASTRUCTURE minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer opens his mouth, a lot of people sit up and listen. This has less to do with Ben-Eliezer himself, and a lot more to do with the fact that the infrastructure minister is one of the people closest to defence minister and Labor Party leader Ehud Barak. The assumption is that when Ben-Eliezer speaks, he is often echoing the private thoughts of Barak.
So when Ben-Eliezer recently went on Israel radio to call for the release of Marwan Barghouti, the Fatah leader serving five life terms in an Israeli jail for orchestrating attacks during the second Palestinian uprising, many assumed Barak might be floating a trial balloon. "He is by no means a moderate," said Ben-Eliezer.
"But at least if an agreement is signed with him, he will stand by it." If Barak is thinking these thoughts, it's unlikely he is the only Israeli leader doing so.
The implication is clear: Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, with whom prime minister Ehud Olmert renewed peace negotiations less than three months ago, is too weak to strike a deal and implement it.
If the US-led summit last November in Annapolis, where Olmert and Abbas agreed to renew negotiations after a seven-year hiatus, raised hopes in the region, a pall of pessimism has again descended on both sides.
On a trip to Japan this week, the Israeli leader was sceptical about the possibility of securing a peace deal with the Palestinians by the end of the year - one of the key goals set at Annapolis. "The desire is to make an agreement within the year 2008. I'm not sure we will be able to achieve it, and certainly not to implement it in the year 2008."
Negotiations have been hampered by continued Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank and in east Jerusalem. While he had initially said that all core issues - borders, refugees, Jerusalem and settlements - would be up for discussion, Olmert backtracked a few weeks ago, saying the future status of Jerusalem was not on the agenda.
That is an indication that it's not just Abbas's political weakness, but also that of Olmert, that is hampering progress in the talks. The religious Shas party have told the prime minister that if Jerusalem is on the agenda, they will leave his ruling coalition, robbing him of his parliamentary majority and possibly setting Israel on course for an election that Olmert does not want.
The escalating violence in Gaza has also underlined a major obstacle to any future agreement: How can Israel seal a deal with Abbas when Hamas, not Abbas, is in full control of the coastal strip?
Violence has escalated dramatically in the last few days, with more than 30 Palestinians killed in Israeli air strikes in Gaza and Hamas firing dozens of rockets into southern Israel, killing one Israeli. Militants this week fired rockets deep into Ashkelon, a major Israeli city with some 120,000 residents.
The intensified rocket fire could well hasten a full-scale Israeli military operation in Gaza, which would effectively end negotiations. There is no way Abbas can conduct talks with Israel, while Israeli tanks are rolling into Gaza and Palestinian militants are dying in clashes with Israeli troops.
Despairing at the lack of progress in negotiations, some Palestinians have begun flirting with the idea of a unilateral declaration of independence - not dissimilar to Kosovo. Veteran Palestinian negotiator Yasser Abed Rabbo, who is close to Abbas, told the daily Haaretz on Friday that his people may be left with no option but a unilateral declaration of statehood.
"As a negotiator, and as one of the moderate Palestinian leaders, I don't think a unilateral declaration of independence is the best option, but we must not rule it out if we fail by the end of 2008, and if we feel that the doors have truly shut and there is no other way. What I feel now is that the Israeli government is trying to buy time. The negotiations that are now under way are simply not serious."