COWEN PROFILE:The taoiseach-in-waiting is just as tough as Ahern, but will he prove to be as patient?
THERE ARE few certainties in life and none at all in politics but it is very hard to find anyone who does not believe Brian Cowen will be the next taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil. There is little comfort in this for the Opposition.
Combative and tough, the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance asks for no quarter nor does he give any in the bear-pit of Leinster House. The air in the Dáil chamber is still sizzling from his nuclear putdown of Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny who was brusquely informed by Mr Cowen last February that he was "neither qualified nor able" to assess Bertie Ahern's guilt or otherwise in the context of the Mahon tribunal.Ouch!
There's plenty more where that came from. The outgoing Taoiseach had his own unique way with words which owed little to the normal rules of grammar and syntax. His likely successor is highly articulate in the conventional sense and can bandy words with the best of them.
Bertie Ahern was more popular in the country than in the party, whereas the opposite is true of Cowen. The Drumcondra man had mastered the art of presenting himself as "one of the lads", thinking only of his constituency and the next big game featuring Man United or the Dubs.
Along with loyalty and gratitude, though, there is a certain reserve towards Bertie and his clique inside the party, especially outside Dublin. In part, this is a country-versus-city phenomenon but it is also a reaction to the more ruthless side of Ahern's political character.
Cowen, on the other hand, is the darling of Fianna Fáil, the man who has a pint with the backbenchers and wows the faithful with his ardfheis rhetoric. They still chuckle over his famous 1992 quip in relation to Fianna Fáil's coalition partnership with the PDs: "When in doubt, leave them out."
But in the country at large, the Tánaiste remains something of an unknown quantity. In an era when politicians court publicity as though their lives depended on it, Cowen is remarkably indifferent as to whether his speeches and official functions are covered by the press and television.
The key to his personality lies in the fact that he is, as he likes to point out occasionally, "a country solicitor" by profession.
This is to an extent a way of deflating opponents who may have too high an opinion of themselves but it also reflects his view of himself as a shrewd and measured individual who takes all the angles into account.
On account of possessing a very low boredom threshold, Cowen can deliver a Civil Service script in such an offhand manner that even the most hyperactive listeners find their eyelids drooping. But when he is exercised about an issue, watch out. Passion, fire and invective come to the fore and you'd better not be in his line of fire.
Even before the laying-on of hands by Ahern, the leadership was within Cowen's grasp. But party insiders say he will not be pleased at the manner in which the low-hanging fruit finally fell into his lap.
Just as WB Yeats complained that "the bishops and the party" brought down Parnell, sources say Cowen will blame elements of the media and legal establishment for Ahern's demise.
Born in Clara, Co Offaly, on January 10th, 1960, he is a son of Bernard "Ber" Cowen, a Fianna Fáil TD who died at the tragically early age of 52.
Following that traumatic loss, Brian went on to win the subsequent byelection and become one of the youngest TDs, at the age of 24.
Finance is his sixth Cabinet post and whereas critics say he relies excessively on civil servants, supporters respond that he only trusts the most able and talented among his officials.
Critics and opponents have also put it about that his fondness for a pint with his mates is a flaw but there is no evidence to suggest that this detracts from his effectiveness as a politician and minister.
Cowen and his wife, Mary, live in Tullamore with their two daughters. If he decides to accept the position of Taoiseach, he will be very much in the eye of the storm. He will be the object of forensic and unremitting media attention which he will not enjoy.
Cowen is just as tough as Bertie Ahern - and then some - but still has to demonstrate that he possesses the equally important attribute of infinite patience.
Cowen's tenure in the office will be a show worth watching.