Jobs growth is expected to halve next year. According to an internal FAS review of employment trends seen by The Irish Times, there will be 51,000 new jobs created next year compared with an estimated 109,000 this year.
The main reason for the reduction is the anticipated slowdown in economic growth. This is expected to fall from 7.25 per cent to 6.25 per cent. The report comes as FAS spearheads a jobs fairs campaign targeted at emigrants returning home for the Christmas holidays.
However, the report predicts that, even to meet the reduced demand for labour, more women will need to be attracted to the workforce and inward migration of workers must continue at the present "historically high levels".
The FAS Review of Labour Market Trends in 1999 and Outlook for 2000 states that the outlook for employment remains "positive", but adds that "the changes will not be as dramatic as in the most recent years".
This reflects the trend since employment growth peaked at an extra 150,000 people in work in the 12 months ending August 1998. It fell to 81,000 in the year ending last August.
Between 1994 and 1999 the number of people at work rose by 338,000, or 24 per cent. Employment growth among men was 150,000, or 17 per cent. Employment of women rose by 188,000, or 35 per cent.
The gap narrowed last year, with male employment rising by 5.9 per cent and female employment by 8.8 per cent.
Nevertheless, growth in female participation in the workforce will remain "very strong" according to FAS.
It now stands at 48.5 per cent, compared with 45 per cent a year ago and 30 per cent in 1988. The number of women at work in the 20 to 24 age cohort, at 79.3 per cent, is almost on a par with men. However, the gap remains wide in age groups over 35, suggesting that there are many more "women in the home" who are seen as potential labour market recruits.
While natural growth in the labour supply and the pool of unemployed people will continue to supply most of the new recruits to the labour market, FAS expresses concern that higher female participation rates and net inward migration be maintained to sustain growth.
The report will no doubt further fuel the debate on individualisation of tax credits and allowances, and work permits for asylum-seekers.
The report does not include in its projections the impact of any new national agreement to succeed Partnership 2000, or the introduction of a national mini mum wage next April. The latter is expected to add 1.6 per cent to the national wage bill, if it is introduced at the level proposed by the Government of £4.40p an hour.
However, the unions are pressing for the figure to be adjusted to around £5 an hour. They will also be seeking wage rises for other workers significantly higher than those in past national agreements. If they achieve this, or if large numbers of workers secure large pay increases in the event of a "free for all", these developments could have a further calming effect on the jobs market.
The report states that the greatest pressure for more labour is in financial services and construction - the fastest growing sectors. Employment growth was 14.3 per cent in financial services and 13.5 per cent in construction.
Unemployment, which averaged 5.7 per cent this year, is expected to average 5 per cent or less next year. It is lowest in Dublin, at 4.5 per cent, and highest in the Border region, at 8.6 per cent. However, the capital has the largest single concentration of unemployed people.
In the new BMW (Border, Midlands and Western) region, unemployment averages 6.8 per cent. It is 5.4 per cent in the Southern and Eastern region.