There is more than a 50 per cent chance the United States could go into recession, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan told El Paisnewspaper in an interview published today.
However, the US has not yet entered recessionary state marked by sharp falls in orders, strong rises in unemployment and intensive weakening of the economy, he said.
Former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan
"We would have to see signs of this intensification: there are some, but not many yet," he said.
"Therefore ... I would not describe the situation we are in as a recession, although the chances that we'll have one are more than 50 per cent."
A sharp downturn in the US housing market has led to a full-blown credit crisis that has reverberated throughout the US financial system.
The economy has become increasingly important in the US presidential campaign, topping the list of voters' concerns heading into the November election.
Mr Greenspan, the US Fed chairman from 1987 to 2006, endorsed the Republican presidential candidate John McCain in the interview.
"I'm Republican and I support John McCain, who I know very well and who I respect a lot," he said.
The economies of the United States and the European Union were at a crossroads after a long period of economic growth without inflation, he said.
"This period is going to be much more difficult, from the point of view of monetary policy, than the period during which I was chairman of the Federal Reserve," he said.
Turning to Europe, he pinpointed Spain as having a bigger real estate bubble than the United States, exposing it to the global credit squeeze.
He gave a broadly positive overview of other European economies.