SUPPORT FOR the Lisbon Treaty has declined over the summer, but the Yes side is still in the lead with four weeks to go to the referendum, according to the latest Irish Times/ TNS mrbi poll.
The poll shows that 46 per cent would vote Yes, a drop of eight points since the last Irish Times poll in May, while 29 per cent say they would vote No, an increase of one point. The number of people in the Don’t Know category has increased by seven points to 25 per cent.
When undecided voters are excluded, the Yes side has 61 per cent, with 39 per cent in the No camp. That compares to the referendum result in June 2008 of 53.4 per cent No and 46.6 per cent Yes.
The decline in the numbers saying they will vote Yes comes after three Irish Times polls in the first half of 2009 that had shown consistently solid support for Lisbon. Most of those who have left the Yes camp have moved into the Don’t Know category rather than shifting into the No camp.
In the Irish Timespoll at a similar stage in the first Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign, 35 per cent said they would vote Yes, 18 per cent said No and 47 per cent said Don't Know.
The latest poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. Voters were asked whether they were likely to vote Yes or No to the treaty on October 2nd.
In the previous poll in May they were asked how they would vote in light of the decision to retain an Irish commissioner along with the legal guarantees on neutrality, abortion and taxation.
Voters were also asked if, in the light of the current economic crisis, they thought it was better to be part of the EU. A substantial 80 per cent thought it better to be part of the EU, (down 1 point since the last poll) 9 per cent thought it was not (down 1 point) and 11 per cent had no opinion (up 2 points).
Asked if they were likely to vote, 74 per cent said very likely, 13 per cent fairly likely, 2 per cent fairly unlikely, 6 per cent very unlikely and 5 per cent had no opinion.
Ninety-one per cent of Yes voters said they were very likely to vote, but among No voters the figure was 70 per cent.
Men are more likely to back the treaty than women, with 52 per cent of male voters saying they will vote Yes compared to 31 per cent No and 16 per cent Don’t Know. Among women, support for the Yes side drops to 41 per cent with 26 per cent No and 34 per cent Don’t Know.
In class terms, there is now overwhelming support for Lisbon among the better-off AB voters, with 68 per cent in favour and only 16 per cent against. At the other end of the social scale, 35 per cent of the poorest DE category are against with 32 per cent in favour.
Fianna Fáil voters are the most enthusiastic supporters of the treaty by a margin of 62 per cent to 23 per cent. Among Fine Gael voters there is also solid backing for the Yes campaign by a margin of 58 per cent to 23 per cent. Labour Party supporters are less enthusiastic with 43 per cent in favour and 31 per cent against.
Green Party supporters are significantly out of tune with their party on the issue with 36 per cent intending to vote No and 31 per cent Yes, despite the party’s decision at a special convention to support Lisbon.
In line with their party’s stance on the issue, Sinn Féin voters are strongly against the treaty, with 66 per cent intending to vote No and just 13 per cent Yes.