THE NUMBER of vacant houses or apartments in the State stands at 345,000, or 17 per cent of all housing, according to new report published today by the Urban Environment Project at University College Dublin.
This is higher than a recent estimate by researchers at the National Institute of Regional and Spatial Analysis, based in NUI Maynooth, which put the figure at 300,000. The Construction Industry Federation maintains only 40,000 homes are vacant.
“Allowing for holiday homes, obsolescence and an expected market vacancy rate, over 170,000 of the housing stock in Ireland can be categorised as an excess vacant supply,” the latest study by researchers at UCD and Dublin Institute of Technology (DIT) says.
Their findings show a striking difference between vacant housing stock in Dublin and the rest of the State. In particular, rural areas are identified as having a major oversupply of housing, reflected in continuing downward price pressure in the new homes market.
Demographic and statistical analysis by Brian Hughes of DIT, developed in the Urban Environment Project’s report, indicate that vacancy levels in the greater Dublin area remain at 11.5 per cent in 2009/10 compared to 17.43 per cent in the rest of the State.
“Any market recovery is most likely to occur first in the Dublin second-hand market where supplies at selected locations are limited,” it says. “This would be followed by the new homes market at locations with good transport access, with other areas trailing behind.
“The identified vacancy levels have major consequences for the future prospects and valuations of development land,” according to Dr Brendan Williams of the UCD school of geography, planning and environmental policy, who was the lead author of the report.
This would have “significant implications” for Nama as well as national and regional planning policies.
“Valuations of development land based on the expected sale of completed developments will need to be revised severely downward,” Dr Williams warned.