Up to 20,000 Taliban fighters trapped in the northern city of Kunduz were last night deciding whether to surrender to encircling Northern Alliance troops or face almost certain death.
The Taliban soldiers, who include large numbers of Arab fighters loyal to Osama bin Laden, found themselves cut off in Kunduz, a provincial capital, when the bulk of the Taliban's northern army retreated from Mazar-e-Sharif last week.
They now have nowhere to flee.
Opposition fighters have severed all the exit routes by taking control of Pul-i-Khumri to the south, Taloqan to the east and Mazar to the west. The Taliban soldiers cannot expect a friendly reception if they head north to the closed border of Tajikistan.
Last night Northern Alliance commanders were still trying to negotiate a deal with the Taliban fighters, after making an abortive attempt to seize the city two days ago. Opposition tanks, soldiers and troop carriers rumbled triumphantly towards the city, only to make a hasty retreat when the Taliban started firing rockets at them.
In normal circumstances, the Afghan Taliban soldiers could be expected to defect to the other side, a tactic seen frequently over the past few days as the opposition swept across northern Afghanistan. But the presence of so many Arab fighters, who rightly fear execution if captured, increases the probability of a bloody denouement. "The Taliban shoes I would not like to be in at the moment are those of the people up there in Kunduz," one senior aid worker said yesterday. "There are significant forces of Taliban surrounded on four sides. There is nowhere for them to go. They will probably try to negotiate a surrender."
Early on Tuesday afternoon, the Northern Alliance thought it had a done deal with Taliban leaders after a key commander signalled he was switching allegiance. However, when the Taliban attacked opposition soldiers on Kunduz's rugged fringes, it was clear further negotiations were necessary.
"I don't know what is happening," an opposition general, Daoud Khan, admitted. "We made contacts with commanders in the city. They told us they would embrace us." The Taliban is used to holding out for long periods against seemingly overwhelming odds.
Opposition troops loyal to the assassinated commander, Ahmed Shah Massoud, lost the neighbouring provincial capital of Taloqan to Taliban forces last year in a humiliating defeat.
The Taliban hung on to the city until last week, when American bombing tipped the balance in the Northern Alliance's favour. The alliance estimates that 20,000 Taliban fighters are still inside Kunduz, but the figure may turn out to be lower.