WHAT RELEVANCE does a motor show in Detroit have for a driver in Dublin or Drogheda? In the past, not much. The US had its own automotive ecosystem and few of its cars, thankfully, made it over here. This is no longer the case.
Chastened by the financial crisis, US consumers now want small, frugal cars – our cars – rather than the profligate land-yachts of old. And the carmakers can’t afford to develop one range for the US and one for everywhere else; new models now need to work worldwide. So what happens at the North American International Auto Show is often as relevant to buyers in Limerick as LA.
The sales numbers that appear at the show are as interesting as the cars. The Detroit show is always held in early January and this is where the sales figures for the previous year are announced. As a measure of the health of the vast automotive industry, and the US and global economies in general, they make Detroit relevant to us all. They also affect the mood of the show. In 2010, when it was announced that the US car industry had plunged from a high of 17 million sales in 2000 to just 10 million in 2009, the show had what one acerbic US commentator described as a “death pallor” about it.
But this year the American car industry posted its third year of increased sales. At 12.78 million, they’re still nowhere near that peak, but almost all the carmakers can claim double-digit sales growth, and having restructured in bankruptcy, General Motors and Chrysler are selling fewer cars more profitably. Globally, Volkswagen, with 8.1 million sales, overtook Toyota to claim second spot after GM with around nine million sales.
Toyota was hampered by the chaos caused by the Japanese tsunami and might reclaim its position, but VW seems well on its way to its unashamedly stated aim of being the world’s biggest carmaker with 10 million sales by 2018.
And the cars? Motor shows often have unintentional themes that link the new cars launched. For a while, of course, it was green propulsion systems, or hybrid or electric drivetrains in particular. Now, we simply expect the carmakers to offer them in every new car or concept they show. Instead, at Detroit this year, size mattered. American buyers want smaller cars and the carmakers want them to have them as they try to drive down the average consumption and emissions of their line-ups.
So to the 16 new small models introduced to the US in 2011, such as the Fiat 500 and Toyota iQ, were added some important new small American arrivals. The ATS is the first small Cadillac since the awful Cimarron of the 1980s. But this one really needs to be good, because its mission is to take on the small, premium and hugely popular German saloons like the BMW 3-series that have been stealing sales from the domestic brands. Visually, the ATS doesn’t break new ground; it shares Cadillac’s “Art and Science” design language with the existing models and is hard to differentiate from the bigger CTS, but it’s all-new underneath and is likely to come to Europe.
The new Dodge Dart is the first big test of whether Fiat’s effective takeover of the Chrysler group makes sense. Underneath, the Dart is mostly Alfa Romeo Giulietta; the merging carmakers hope to cut new-model development time and cost by offering Fiat and Alfa small-car tech in the US, and Chrysler group big-car and SUV platforms in Europe and elsewhere. Again, it may well come to Europe, possibly built in China.
Other important new launches include a concept previewing the new Honda NSX hybrid-powered supercar, and the US-designed Ford Fusion that will become the new European Mondeo in 2013 (left). Old-fashioned, unreconstructed Yank tanks are still there – Ford showed a 650bhp convertible Mustang GT500 – but you had to look for them. Despite selling nearly 600,000 each year in the US (comfortably more than any other vehicle) Ford’s big F-series pick-up was buried at the back of its stand.
And all the carmakers were making big plans for their small cars, predicting continued strong growth despite the economic uncertainty. “No expert knows for certain what direction the world economy will take in the next few months,” said Mercedes boss Dieter Zetsche. “But in the longer term the global car industry could grow by 40 million units by 2020.”
Volvo’s global sales boss Doug Speck was more cautious. “It’s hard enough to predict what will happen in 2012,” he said. “There are some bets you can make. You can bet on China, India and Brazil all growing. We’ll see fair growth in the US. But Europe is the wild card. It’s very tough to call. A lot depends on how you work your way through the euro crisis. But I wouldn’t expect anything more than slow growth, at best.”
Who’s right? Come back next year and find out.
Show highlights
LEXUS LF-LC
The best-looking debut at Detroit? We love the LF-LC concept: the only question was whether Lexus would have the nerve to put it on sale without watering it down. It previews a new look for the brand, but Lexus is considering a hybrid 2+2 seat coupé like this, so the LF-LC’s radical one-piece screen and roof and distorted styling could make it to a dealership one day.
VOLKSWAGEN E-BUGSTER
Two concepts for the price of one. The VW E-Bugster previews how the Beetle cabriolet will look when it appears in production form. And as the E prefix suggests, this Bug is electric, previewing the drivetrain that will go into the next generation VW Golf from 2013. Its 85kW motor will get the car to 100km/h in 10.9 seconds and a full charge gives around 170km.
SMART FOR-US
America’s love affair with the pick-up inspires this concept from Smart, but it actually previews the bigger forfour due in 2014. This will be a more conventional car than the fortwo: having the engine in the front will allow it to offer four seats, but in the for-us concept this space has been used for a cargo bay that carries and charges two e-bikes.
MERCEDES SL
Only the sixth generation of SL in nearly sixty years is big news. For a new model that will have to last a long time the new SL doesn’t break much ground. Construction is all aluminium, but the highlights Merc seems proudest of are a new design of wiper blade and speakers that sit in the footwell rather than the door, using it as a natural resonator.
FORD’S NEW MONDEO (Fusion in US)
This will be the new Ford Mondeo from 2013. Before the car industry imploded, Ford’s US and European ranges were quite distinct and were designed where they were sold. Now, to cut costs, the new One Ford policy means one model needs to work in all markets. US-designed cars like this haven’t thrilled fussy European buyers like us in the past, but the auto giant needs the model known as the Fusion in its home market to live up to its US name and work on both sides of the pond.
HONDA NSX
This is the star of the show. It revives a famous name: the original Honda NSX, built between 1990 and 2005, was the first true Japanese supercar, better than contemporary Ferraris and with an intensely loyal following. It will be US built and badged as an Acura, on sale 2015. A mid-mounted V6 drives the rear wheels and two electric motors drive the front.
