The AA in Britain has predicted that a band of "near stationary" traffic four kilometres deep will encircle central London for up to six hours a day once the congestion charge is introduced on February 17th. Mark Townsend reports from London.
Using its own traffic movement models, Britain's biggest motoring organisation says all major routes, side streets and residential "rat runs" within a vast area bordering the charging zone will become snarled with traffic during weekdays, bringing misery to millions living outside the charging area.
The AA conducted its assessment after getting hundreds of calls from members asking what routes they should take to avoid paying the £5 charge to enter central London. Although Transport for London (TfL) has admitted traffic may increase slightly at the boundary where the £5 charge is levied, the AA are concerned that the wider impact remains unknown.
"The average car speed in central London is 3mph," says an AA spokesman. "This will simply spread out to engulf large parts of London."
However, a TfL spokesman said that the repercussions of the charge had been researched for two years.
In a separate attack, the AA has also warned that it will not hesitate to use a "fighting fund" to take legal action against TfL if motorists are wrongly penalised when entering the zone. It said that creating a legal precedent to prevent large numbers of motorists being mistakenly fined would be considered if there was a "compelling" case.
Concern is also mounting over evidence suggesting that large numbers of motorists remain ignorant over the charge, which comes into operation in less than three weeks. The number of motorists who have registered to obtain the 90 per cent residents' discount also appears to be far short of expectations.
Latest figures reveal that around 7,000 of the 83,000 people living inside the zone have applied for the concession, although TfL say the current total is actually far higher.
Meanwhile, beating the charges has spawned a thriving black market. Among the gadgets flooding the market is a liquid crystal display number plate, which is designed to fool the congestion zone cameras that register a driver's details.
One such scheme available via the Internet is the priva-plate system, which works by attaching a "fake" plate on to a vehicle's registration number.
As drivers enter the congestion zone, they flick a switch on a cable, sending a signal to the false plate which frosts over, obscuring the number plate.
However, it is not cheap, costing in the region of £150 (€230) - or 30 week-day trips into central London.
It is illegal to obscure number plates and TfL has installed "spy" cameras throughout the congestion zone, not just at the boundary. Some 800 cameras are located within and around the eight square miles of the zone.
Smothering number plates with mud is a cruder alternative, but is also illegal. Several companies are updating their satellite navigation systems to warn motorists that they are approaching the congestion boundary, allowing evasive action.
Less sophisticated attempts to beat the charges that are gaining popularity include the "cloning" of number plates. Tony Vickers of the Association of British Drivers (ABD) says: "Pick a car of the same model and colour as your own and forge their registration number. I expect that a growth industry making dodgy number plates will start up."
Simply using someone else's car, as long as the insurance is valid, is another option. Moving house but not updating driving licence or vehicle details is another way to avoid the charges. Again, this is illegal because it would involve lying to insurance companies.
More radical calls for action are expected this week from Catherine Crawley, founder of the anti-congestion charge website www.sod-u-ken.co.uk.
She is encouraging tens of thousands of people to bombard TfL with e-mails and calls in an attempt to clog the lines and stop people paying legitimately.
Meanwhile the ABD's Vickers suggests "mass civil disobedience". "People could send back their fines and refuse to pay, saying they have got the wrong address to encourage widespread administrative chaos."
There are, however, ways that Londoners can legitimately avoid the charge. By switching to cars powered by green fuels or buying scooters and bicycles, which are exempt, motorists can save up to £1,250 a year.
Cars that run on electricity or gas can also apply to TfL for a 100 per cent discount on the £5 daily charge.
Guardian Service