Shortage of stock could prove a stumbling block for investors

Jasper Brett

Jasper Brett

Director of Investments Lisney

SOME of the best investments are in the city centre, but I would be concerned about the impact the LUAS could have. It could knock the city centre off balance for six to nine months and this could be a critical period for retailers.

One also has to worry about all the out-of-town schemes and the possibility of Dublin becoming over-shopped. In Britain, they are calling a halt to these developments.

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Overall, there has been a lot of good investment deals, signalling that the market has strengthened. Office rents are moving forward again. Next year, more of the overseas funds may come into Ireland.

A lot of these funds are buying gilts, but they don't understand Irish property. They feel nervous about investing because Ireland is a bit far away from them. Quite often they only invest in property in Ireland if they have an office here.

John Finnegan

Managing Director Finnegan Menton

THERE should be a continuing downward trend in short-term interest rates in the coming year.

There will also be an appetite for larger lot sizes, which have been hard to get, particularly in the £5 million to £10 million price range. The big question is: what stock will be available in 1997? This is the time of the year when, historically, fund managers make their allocations for the following year. Property companies and private investors have entered the market in great force with an appetite for larger properties. There is very keen demand from professionals for commercial investments to hold as private pension funds.

I believe that the funds will take advantage of the greater liquidity in the market in looking at the spread of investments in the different market sectors next year, as they seek to balance their portfolios and dispose of properties which no longer fit their requirements. The end of the year saw the OPW re-entering the market, following an absence of many years and buying a number of properties, including the sale of Bord Iascaigh Mhara's building at Crofton Road, which was sold for £4 million. The OPW also bought Goldsmith House in Pearse Street for £2.7 million and is buying the Bord na Gaeilge building on Merrion Square for £1.36 million.

Adrian Truicke

Director of Investments Sherry FitzGerald

If interest rates stay much as they are, then we the market next year. If they rise, the institutions will play a more active role. The vast bulk of property investments in the past six months was bought by private investors. There is a view that if the return can come close to covering the investment, then the private investor will be interested, whereas the institutions will take a 10-year view and the investment must show a 10 per cent return. With the way prices are being bid down, they cannot show this kind of return. Also, there is now less than 1 per cent between the variable and the fixed five-year rate.

There has been a slight change of strategy among some of the bigger institutions, who are know looking at more higher yielding, secondary properties than they had before.

Jim McMahon

Property Investment Dank of Ireland Asset Managers

THERE is still a tremendous amount of interest from private and institutional investors. Prices have not been pushed too hard and there is no serious signs that the market is overheating. Yields may come down slightly. I would expect that the main growth next year will come from rent increases in all sectors. Office investments have performed very strongly this year and will continue to do so.

There is still very strong tenant demand and none of the sectors has been over supplied yet. There is a lot of talk of over-shopping, but there is still competition among retailers for good units in prime locations. Assuming the general climate remains same - principally low interest rates - there no reason why this should change.

It is very easy for some sectors to overdevelop very quickly, especially in the industrial property sector, but the market still looks fairly controlled. There is no sign of the market running too far ahead of demand. Office supply is also at a low point - a vacancy rate of around 5 per cent, which is what current levels are running at - is considered to be equilibrium. Another point to remember is that there has been a huge increase in the number of people at work and they all need space to work in.

Liam Lenehan

Director of Investments Hamilton Osborne King

I DON'T see the investment market slowing down next year. It is driven by interest rates, which are low, and the expectation of rental growth, which has encouraged a lot of people to move into the market. There is still plenty of demand from private and institutional investors, although some are becoming a bit scared of yields and prices. Prices in Ireland won't continue to show the same growth next year. Investors won't be able to bid higher prices unless interest rates fall. Growth in the investment market will come from occupier demand.

A number of people are finding it difficult to find the right product. They may look to Britain where there are plenty of investment properties for sale and the market there is at the early stages of recovery. There are also good prospects for growth and yields are higher. Stamp duty in the UK, at 1 per cent, is also very low, compared with 6 per cent here. Having said that, the investment market will be extremely promising over the next 12 to 18 months.

Sean Davin

Managing Director Davin & Associates

THERE is a lot of confidence in the economy - which is good for property. The commercial market did not go mad, even though it was strong. The kind of value that is still available in London, in investments has acted as something of a restraining factor in Ireland.

The most sensitive issue of all is interest rates. The outlook for investments seems fairly good for the coming year, but it is a hard one to call beyond the next 12 months. There is a lot of money around, particularly at the small end of the market - up to £500,000 and there very little supply of quality investments available.

Some of the institutional investors have done some re-balancing of their portfolios this year, and this will probably continue in 1997. I can see them taking profits and concentrating on the top end of the market. It is important to treat the tax-based end of the investment market separately, otherwise it could have a distorting effect on people's perception of the real market and what it is doing.

The past two years have been good years for profits and many corporates are seeking shelters in tax-designated property and they can afford to go the extra mile on price. Investors looking at non-designated property need to remain discerning. At the end of the day, the yield must always reflect the quality of the income.

John Bruder

Head of Property AIB Investment Managers

INTEREST rates might rise slightly, but move will be small. Although interest rates are low relative to where they were years ago, they are high in real terms, especially when inflation is only about 2 per cent. There is scope for them to fall in the medium to long term. In Germany, for example, rates are one to two percentage points lower than they are in Ireland. Capital appreciation this year has been about 7.4 per cent, which is not huge compared with stock values, which are up around 20 per cent. That modest growth gives me a lot of confidence for next year and the year after. Rental growth will probably not be dramatic. There is room for around 5 per cent growth across the board. The tax-driven end of the market has been the most buoyant. It has shown huge growth in prices and values but is probably the one sector which has run ahead of itself. It has been fuelled by a hunger for tax breaks. Tax breaks are an artificial thing; it is very bad if an investment is made purely for tax breaks.