Ireland is “highly likely” to have a warmer-than-average summer, Met Éireann is predicting, citing climate change and other factors specific to this year.
Based on its data, Met Éireann is forecasting that temperatures in May, June and July will be between a half a degree and a degree above normal. This is significant, spread over the length of a season.
The long-term seasonal forecast is based on satellite imagery from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which is part of the European Union‘s Copernicus Earth observation programme.
[ This week’s weather forecastOpens in new window ]
Met Éireann climatologist Paul Moore said the expected warm season is a result of two factors: the first being climate change, which is making most seasons warmer than average. The second is the absence of either El Niño or La Niña effect, which can have an impact on Atlantic weather patterns.
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Separately, the United Kingdom Met Office has calculated that the chance of a hotter-than-average May, June and July is 2.3 times greater than normal.
It has also cited climate change as a factor, along with the later-than-normal stratospheric winds and above-average sea-surface temperatures.
The UK Met Office has stressed that it is not necessarily forecasting heatwaves, but the chances of them occurring are greater than normal.
March and early April were very dry, but a lot of heavy rain fell in the middle of April, meaning that rainfall for the month was about average. This was followed by a very dry end to April which has continued into May.
Soil moisture deficits, which indicate how wet or dry the soil is, are now significantly greater than average.
Soil moisture deficits are between 18mm and 25mm in well-drained soil and 11mm and 21mm in poorly drained soil. This is the amount of rainfall that would need to fall to restore the soil to average moisture levels.
Met Éireann is forecasting that deficits will become worse as dry weather persists.
Mr Moore said there is a possibility of absolute drought conditions being declared in parts of Ireland in the coming days. An absolute drought is defined by 15 successive days without rain. Most places have had no rain since April 27th and none is forecast over the coming days. The forecast up to and including next week is for dry and sunny weather. Any rain that falls will mostly be light showers along west and southwest coasts.
Uisce Éireann has implemented a hosepipe ban in Kells and Oldcastle in Co Meath, Mullingar in Co Westmeath and Milford in Co Donegal.
[ Water system ‘in a desperate state’, says Uisce Éireann bossOpens in new window ]
The ban came into place on Tuesday at midnight and will last for six weeks. It is necessary, claims the utility company, because of a drier than average autumn, winter and spring.
The company says it is monitoring 11 other supplies in the counties of Kilkenny, Galway, Limerick, Kerry and Tipperary that are running low. Uisce Éireann is maintaining supplies by tankering to reservoirs and pressure management.
They include Ahascragh, Co Galway; Inis Oirr, Co Galway; Kenmare, Co Kerry; Castlecomer, Co Kilkenny; Clough/Castlecomer, Co Kilkenny; Gorteen, Co Kilkenny; Foileen, Co Limerick; Herbertstown, Co Limerick; Pallasgreen, Co Limerick; Coalbrook, Co Tipperary; and Riverstown, Co Tipperary.
