LONG before the Russians re partitioned the country, because of the incidence of BSE in the national herd, Fine Gael was in trouble.

It wasn't trouble of its own making the infection of cattle with a dangerous virus and the subsequent, collapse in consumer confidence was a Europewide phenomenon. But a Fine Gael Minister was in charge. And the IFA was thumping the drum.

There is some method in the IFA's madness. Even allowing for the international damage caused by increased publicity of our BSE problems, it sees itself as protecting, producers' interests. If customers won't buy the meat, then farmers must be fully compensated for any, losses.

The "crisis" caused by a 16 to 20 per cent fall in prices since last March is very real for some farmers. But it conveniently cloaks the larger picture of rising incomes in dairy farming and in two thirds of the agricultural sector. A record year is expected for tillage and root crops, pigs and poultry.

With a general election less than nine months away, the IFA is flexing its political muscle and putting the frighteners on both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.

Declining employment in the industry - down to 136,000 in the Labour Force Survey - must not be allowed to undermine its awesome lobbying power. There must be no question of taxing the £1,700 million in head age payments and other subsidies flowing in from Brussels. And no question of a future land tax.

A Fine Gael deputy yesterday observed ruefully: "The IFA is politically dangerous." And so it is, with John Donnelly leading the charge. The question is whether farmers, as a group, will react to his prompting. Or will they see the BSE crisis and its impact, like bad harvest weather, as an Act of God.

Fianna Fail is in no doubt that there are votes in this disaster. Since early summer, Bertie Ahern has behaved like a culchie wearing an agricultural heart on his sleeve as he lamented the fate of rural Ireland. And Brian Cowen has raised lumps on Ivan Yates over his political mishandling of the issue.

FIRST, it was the lack of financial compensation then it was the EU Commissioner's proposals for dealing with the crisis then it was the refusal of the British to pursue a slaughter out policy, and now it's the Russians and other foreign buyers setting unacceptable terms.

By agreeing to the Russians' demand for the exclusion of Cork Tipperary and Monaghan from a beef contract worth £100 million, Mr Yates may have handed Fianna Fail five Dail seats and underpinned their retention of another. That, at least, is their estimation.

Party strategists now believe they can gain seats from Fine Gael in Cork South West, Cork North West and Cork North Central. A seat in Tipperary North is, they feel, practically guaranteed on the retirement of the Labour Party's John Ryan.

And the prospect of holding a third seat in Cavan Monaghan has immeasurably improved. There is a gain to be made in the new constituency of Kildare South, and a handful of other seats may be available if they can swing the farmers vote.

Fine Gael's rural TDs are deeply worried. And those from the three affected counties are almost frantic. Part of the reason is that they cannot quantify the effect of Mr Donnelly's rhetoric.

They are getting little or no sympathy from their partners in Government. Farmers have never cultivated the Labour Party or Democratic Left and, as a consequence, BSE and the price of beef are seen within Government as a Fine Gael problem, except when it impinges on public health and consumer confidence.

There, a faultline runs across the main Dail parties and there is a dangerous and growing urban/rural divide. The political importance of BSE is huge, both as a producer and a consumer issue.

The crisis has a life of its own. Next spring, the dairy sector will take losses when farmers dispose of their calves the live cattle trade will then kick in, to be followed by autumn slaughtering. And the industry is terribly exposed. Some 80 per cent of production is exported at a time of falling consumption.

THE Irish beef industry had been stumbling from crisis to crisis for years. The cyclical live trade was always a source of party in fighting between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.

It reached a new peak in the late 1980s when we were treated to the spectacle of Charlie Haughey, in opposition, sharing a tent with the Libyan leader, Col Gadafy. Later, the processing business kicked in, with beef mountains in cold storage, export credit refunds and the shenanigans which finally led to the beef tribunal.

Since then, the EU has dealt with the problem of Irish over production by subsidising live sales to non European markets. It worked fine until the BSE crisis. The industry has been in stop go mode ever since.

The latest proposals from Commissioner Fischler for dealing with the BSE crisis, involving the slaughter of calves, have been condemned by Fianna Fail and rejected by the IFA. Mr Yates will address that issue at a meeting of agriculture, ministers in Luxembourg next Monday. But no matter what is agreed, he will be blamed. Restructuring the Irish beef industry is going to be costly and painful.

In the past, it took deliberate acts of government commission, rather than omission, to mobilise the farming vote. The most spectacular shift was from Fine Gael to Fianna Fail in 1977, after Richie Ryan had the gall to bring farmers into the income tax net and to whack a 1 per cent wealth tax on all properties.

Exactly 10 years later, the exercise was repeated after Garret FitzGerald introduced a 1 per cent land tax on adjusted acreage. The farmers couldn't or wouldn't pay. On both occasions, the offending taxation provisions were removed by the incoming government.

Some time before the 1992 general election, Fianna Fail toyed with the notion of introducing RSI numbers for farmers and of taxing EU headage payments. The fierceness of the farming reaction caused a rethink, but the party still suffered heavily in rural areas. The net result is that farmers now contribute 1.7 per cent of the State's income tax take.

The hope in Fine Gael is that farmers will recognise the determined efforts being made on their behalf by Ivan Yates and by the Government. It is not, they say, the Minister's fault that the incidence of BSE in Irish cattle may treble this year. Nor that foreign buyers are laying down strict demands.

If prices hold at present levels and adequate EU compensation is provided, they hope the controversy may blow over, at least until after the general election. It is a vain hope. In some farmers eyes, Fine Gael and Ivan Yates have been damaged by association. The BSE crisis will run and run.