It seems that the results of the Irish Times/MRBI poll, which was conducted on June 2nd3rd and published in this newspaper last Saturday, have caused even the most experienced political observers to scratch their heads.

The question that occasions the scratching is as follows: given the intensifying spate of revelations and allegations and given clear evidence of a decline in support for Fianna Fail in polls in the last few months, why are the voters apparently rallying to the support of the Government in the forthcoming contest?

The question arises because for years the conventional wisdom, in Ireland and elsewhere, has been that European Parliament elections are mainly mid-term tests of the popularity of the government. Since the Irish Times/MRBI poll suggests that Fianna Fail will comfortably retain its current batch of seats in the European Parliament, the message would seem to be that the voters are quite happy with the present Fianna Failled Government.

The problem with this view is that the conventional wisdom, that when voters go to the polls in a European Parliament election (or, indeed, in a local election) they are really passing judgement on the government of the day, is highly dubious. This can be seen from the record of European Parliament elections to date (see accompanying graph).

The results of the first European Parliament election in Ireland were indeed a shock to the system and appeared to be a classic case of the voters delivering a judgement on an unpopular government. This interpretation had momentous consequences at the time, contributing substantially to the rapid retirement of Jack Lynch and the election of Charles J. Haughey as Taoiseach.

With hindsight, however, one can see that Fianna Fail's 1979 performance was not some resounding rebuke from the voters but was broadly in line with its performance in the subsequent three European Parliament elections.

In 1984, even though it was in opposition, Fianna Fail's Euro vote was substantially down by comparison with the previous election; in 1989, when it was neither in government nor in opposition (since both a general and a European Parliament election were held on the same day), its Euro vote was substantially down relative to its 1987 support and relative to its support in the same-day general election.

Finally in 1994, when the party was back in government, its vote was down even relative to its poor performance in the 1992 general election. In short, to date and in or out of government, Fianna Fail has tended to do less well in European elections than in general elections.

This tendency is in fact part of a larger pattern: Fianna Fail has also declined substantially relative to the preceding general election in all but one of the six local elections held in the last 40 years. The one exception is the 1985 local elections when the party managed to retain its November 1982 level of support. This might suggest that it only loses when in government. Not so: in 1974 it was also in opposition and its local election vote was down 71/2 percentage points on 1973.

The Irish Times/MRBI poll suggests that Fianna Fail may be about to throw off its Euro jinx. The primary message is that Fianna Fail Euro-candidates are doing well, especially outside Dublin. But, just as it was an oversimplification to interpret Fianna Fail's European Parliament performance to date as an adverse judgement on its role in government, it would be a mistake to regard its current promising Euro performance as an endorsement of the current government.

This is so despite the fact that the Irish Times/MRBI poll also shows Fianna Fail support in terms of voting intention in a hypothetical general election to be back up to 51 per cent. The point to note about this figure is that this question was asked after the various questions about voting intention in the European Parliament election.

As such it may reflect some of the gains deriving from the successful performance of the Fianna Fail candidates in the European campaign (this is in fact the opposite of the direction in which the influence has been assumed to flow).

The poll also tells us that Fine Gael Euro candidates are doing all right but that Labour candidates are doing badly everywhere, except in Dublin, and particularly badly in Munster. Since the PDs have no Euro candidates, the poll tells us very little about their standing other than that their vote in a hypothetical general election is down to 2 per cent. Again this may reflect their absence from the European campaign.

It should be emphasised that the poll tells us nothing about how the parties will perform in the local elections. If it is true that the parties' Euro-performances are not simply a reflection of voters' attitudes to the Government then it is equally true that how the parties do in the local elections will not simply reflect the trends revealed in the Irish Times/MRBI poll.

This means that the political implications of next Friday's voting for the parties will be complex. The political consequences of gains or losses by any party at the European level may be reinforced or offset by how the party does in the local elections.

In the case of the PDs their performance will be judged solely on that basis. Labour, provided it does well in the local elections, may be able to counter what looks like being a poor Euro performance by hyping up its achievements at local level. To do so effectively, however, will mean acknowledging that, with the exception of Dublin, it had a poor candidate strategy in the European contest.

Inevitably, people will look to the current poll for indications of the fortunes of particular candidates and, especially, for predictions of the destination of the last seat in each constituency. The Irish Times/MRBI poll provides some evidence in this regard, as it was based on a sample size more than half as big again as that normally used in election polls and had in fact 400 respondents in each Euro-constituency.

While this still leaves fairly large margins of error around estimates of support for particular candidates, it is probably safe to conclude that, as of June 2nd-3rd, Proinsias De Rossa was ahead of Bernie Malone in Dublin; that Avril Doyle was ahead of Alan Gillis in Leinster; that, in Munster, Pat Cox seemed likely to double his first-preference vote by comparison with 1994; and, finally, that the two independent candidates in Connacht-Ulster were neck and neck.

Predicting the destination of the final seats is much more difficult. It is crucial in two cases, Dublin and Leinster, because the destination of the last seat in these constituencies will seal the fate of the Greens in this election. It is difficult because it all depends on transfers.

In both cases, however, it would appear that the transfers that really matter will be transfers from the left rather than from the centre of the political spectrum. As such they are more likely to benefit the Greens rather than either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael and, on this basis, ensure that the Irish Greens again do better on the European than on the national stage.

Prof Richard Sinnott is director of CEEPA (Centre for European Economic and Public Affairs) at University College Dublin and co-author of People and Parliament in the European Union: Participation, Democracy and Legitimacy (Oxford University Press, 1998)