Violence, corruption threaten key election

After struggling through their most tumultuous period since overthrowing white minority rule in 1979, five million Zimbabweans…

After struggling through their most tumultuous period since overthrowing white minority rule in 1979, five million Zimbabweans make their way to the polls today, some bearing the bruises and scars of political violence, to take a momentous decision.

They must decide whether to endorse President Robert Mugabe and his policy of ejecting white farmers from their land, or whether they have had enough of his one-party state which has beggared the economy and which threatens to make a political pariah - or worse - of the country.

"These elections can only be won by Mugabe if they are rigged. I shudder to contemplate the consequences if that happens," said Prof Masipula Sithole, one of Zimbabwe's leading political analysts. Last week the Mass Public Opinion Institute, of which he is a director, published an opinion poll predicting victory for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party.

"If the people cannot settle the issue in the polling booths, they will settle it in the streets. I pray that Zanu-PF is not tempted to fiddle the elections and that does not happen," he said.

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The MDC enjoys unrivalled support among urban voters in the capital, Harare, and the second city, Bulawayo. But the real election battle will be fought in the countryside, where fear and intimidation have been the canvassing calling-card of the ruling Zimbabwean African National Union - Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) party.

So-called war veterans - a combination of genuine ex-combatants and Zanu-PF thugs - have occupied white farms but in recent weeks turned their violent energies on the landless black peasants they claim to represent. Some 32 people have been killed and at least 500 were beaten or otherwise injured since April. A further 6,000 voters have fled their homes under threat of violence, effectively forfeiting their voting rights, according to the Zimrights human rights group.

"A lot of people have been intimidated in the rural areas. They are afraid to vote for the opposition, having been told `we can find out who you are voting for from a computer'. But most of these people don't even know what a computer is," said programmes co-ordinator David Jamali.

The voting procedure is watertight, on paper at least. But there are many worrying signs of potential abuse. A recent law handed control of the elections to the Registrar General - a Zanu-PF appointee. By yesterday morning, none of the 1,400 Zimrights election monitors had received their accreditation.

Zimbabweans praying for change have pinned their hopes on one man, MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

Like practically all political activists in Zimbabwe, Tsvangirai cut his teeth in the Zanu party. After a stint as a political commissar in a nickel mine north of Harare, he climbed the trade union ladder - then closely allied to Zanu - before eventually dropping his job and becoming secretary general of the Zimbabwean Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) in 1988.

The break with party politics was completed the following year, when he led the ZCTU away from its cosy relationship with the ruling party.

Last September Tsvangirai patched together a coalition of academics, trade unionists and human rights activists to form the Movement for Democratic Change. The party jumped on the wave of public anger at just the right time and after only nine months the party threatens to do away with 20 years of Mugabe rule.

"There is a general feeling that the tide has turned from fear to anger in the rural areas. Now people are saying they've had enough," said Michael Auret, a white MDC candidate for Harare Central.

Moderates and intellectuals within Zanu-PF have been elbowed out by hardliners since the farm occupations started, and about 20 MPs have decided not to contest the election or to run as independents. One senior party member described the current state of morale: "There are lots of good people in the party but nobody has the courage to say enough is enough. We have been whipped into place - whatever the leader says, we shout it louder."

President Mugabe controls 30 of the 150 seats in the Zimbabwean parliament. Although in public Zanu-PF scoffs at the notion of an MDC victory, it expects to lose between 34 and 40 seats, the activist said.

In the event of the MDC taking 75 or more seats - enough to secure a voting majority - President Mugabe would find co-habitation impossible, he said. Mugabe has the power to dissolve parliament and rule by decree. That would be a foolish move, according to Prof Sithole. "The people would take to the streets. And historically when that happens they only go back with the head of the prince. I don't think our prince wants that."

But when the results are announced early next week, an MDC victory is by no means a sure thing, even if votes are properly counted. Zanu-PF has traditionally enjoyed strong support in the rural areas, and it remains to be seen if the MDC has convinced enough people to have the conviction - or the courage - to vote for it.

And if the MDC does win, Tsvangirai and his faithful, none of whom have ever served in a government, will find themselves at the bottom of a very steep learning curve as they attempt to pull the Zimbabwean economy out of the current nosedive.

Like the ANC in South Africa during apartheid, the MDC is more strongly defined by what it is not - Zanu-PF - rather than what it is. But if the coalition of well-intentioned reformers find themselves in government next week, they will soon have to figure out what they stand for - and how they can deliver it.