THERE are on the face of it two almost contradictory messages coming out of Washington on Northern Ireland. One is that nothing has changed in US policy even with the election of President Clinton's friend Tony Blair, and no change is likely.
The other message is that the election of Mr Blair and the reopening of talks between his officials and Sinn Fein has injected a "new dynamism" into the peace process that will have the fullest US support, which could mean engaging in some push and shove to get Sinn Fein to the table.
President Clinton's personal reaction with White House reporters to the election of Mr Blair, whom he encouraged "to take up the torch" on the search for peace in Northern Ireland, contrasted with the cautious phrasing of the reaction from his spokesman a day earlier.
The Irish Embassy here sees a quickening of interest in the White House in prospects for a breakthrough in the peace process. "They are briefing themselves and informing themselves across the board. They are also in touch with, all the parties in Northern Ireland.
Where there are differences and gaps to be bridged, the US can be very helpful. That has been the pattern in the past. Such a role looks like coming up again if the British government and Sinn Fein IRA fail to agree on how soon Sinn Fein should come into talks after a cease fire and on other confidence building measures.
Last November when a breakthrough looked likely, the US discreetly urged the Major government to give Sinn Fein a date for joining the talks in the event of a ceasefire. But this kind of US involvement has to be virtually invisible to prevent a backlash from unionists.
It is correct that what officials here call the "fundamental US position" on Northern Ireland has not changed. Namely, there must first be a genuine IRA ceasefire before Sinn Fein can get to the negotiating table chaired by the former US senator, Mr George Mitchell.
How soon Sinn Fein should be in the talks after the calling of a ceasefire is a question that the administration is not going to answer publicly and that President Clinton is not expected to expound on before the press in London next week although it may come up in his private talks.
Neither will he have "new initiatives" to announce on this or other aspects of the peace process, officials here insist, as they reject reports that the President will make a major speech" during a tight schedule that has him in and out of London on the same day.
UP on Capitol Hill, there is less reticence in the Congressional Ad Hoc Committee, which keeps closelinks with Sinn Fein and has little patience with what it sees as British footdragging. Thus the four cochairmen, Mr Ben Gilman, who also heads the important House International Affairs Committee, Mr Peter King, Mr Tom Manton and Mr Richard Neal, greeted the election of Mr Blair with a call for an IRA ceasefire to be followed by "immediate allparty talks with no preconditions".
The congressmen also want President Clinton to urge Mr Blair to initiate confidencebuilding measures to assure the nationalist community "that it will be treated fairly in the talks".
The White House, however, is careful not to identify with what would be seen as too "green a position, believing that its role is to back the British and Irish governments in their joint efforts to end the present impasse and not be seen to favour a nationalist or unionist viewpoint.
"We're observers in terms of changes in the British government, possible changes in the Irish Government and what that might mean for the peace process" is how one administration official puts it. Washington is also "keenly aware that Tony Blair and Mo Mowlam have gone out of their way to give certain assurances to both the nationalist and unionist communities.
Thus Dr Mowlam has made RUC reform a priority and, unlike the Major government, intends to implement the North report on parades in full. But "we also see the Blair speech as giving extra assurances to the unionists, which it certainly did," the official said.
The question of the timing of Sinn Fein entry into the multiparty talks at Stormont is likely to be on the agenda of the meeting here tomorrow between Dr Mowlam and the President's National Security Adviser, Mr Sandy Berger. The "confidence building measures" set out by the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, in his article in The Irish Times on Wednesday are also likely to be discussed.
PRESIDENT Clinton, who follows every twist in the Northern Ireland situation advice and has the benefit of regular from Senator Mitchell, will have to decide how much he wants to get the US involved in closing the gap that is sure to emerge over the hows and whens of Sinn Fein getting into the peace talks after an IRA ceasefire.
"It is not appropriate for us to make a pronouncement on how the British government and Sinn Fein should work out that longstanding disagreement ... Both sides would bristle at concrete suggestions on our part," an administration official said.
It has also been noted that for Sinn Fein the timing of entry into talks is only one element in its demands for confidence building measures and a fixed timeframe for the talks. The US does not want to be caught up in a detailed prenegotiation to get Sinn Fein into talks, but President Clinton might find it hard to resist an opportunity to try to get each side to go the extra mile if the prize is the "inclusive" talks he dearly wants.
