TWO scenarios suggest themselves after the first three days of the multi party talks at Stormont, both of them potentially negative from the Dublin perspective. Either Mr David Trimble, the Ulster Unionist leader, emerges strengthened and emboldened - or he fulfils Dr Ian Paisley's predictions and is consequently weakened and undermined.
That it is so is witness to the vagaries of a week in the life of the Northern Ireland "peace process".
Just last Thursday Mr Trimble appeared in danger of isolation as London and Dublin "agreed" the chairmanships, agenda and rules of procedure for the hoped for "all party negotiations". The UUP leader had concentrated his energies on blocking former senator Mr George Mitchell's appointment as chairman of the Strand Two - North/South talks, while Dublin's energies had been devoted to ensuring his "over arching" role as chairman of the plenary sessions which would drive the process as a whole.
The British, it seemed, had made a further psychological adjustment in the light of Sinn Fein's performance in the watershed election on May 30th. Mr Trimble might apply - his veto but he could not count on Mr Major to stand by him. The "Frameworks" approach had been given a powerful nudge. And the situation in the North had been finally, and truly, internationalised.
The furious reaction of Dr Paisley and Mr Robert McCartney was given sharper edge by the suspicion that Mr Trimble had already signed up to Mr Mitchell's appointment. The UUP leader had hotly denied a report to that effect in The Irish Times on May 15th.
Mr Trimble's agreement, it was said, was contingent upon his being satisfied that Mr Mitchell was still committed to the recommendations of the Mitchell Report. But since the distinguished American was never going to disavow his own report, this seemed purely "for the optics".
AND WHILE the unionist war of words raged around Stormont yesterday, senior UUP sources claimed Dr Paisley and Mr McCartney had been told "at an early stage" that Mr Trimble would not hold out against Mr Mitchell's appointment.
Over the past few days it had seemed he might. Mr Trimble was under fearsome pressure from his rivals. The initial "spin" gave way to the realisation that the UUP really had done badly in the election. And Mr Trimble faced internal criticism for a strategy which had ended in a Sinn Fein triumph. Moreover, his deputy leader, Mr John Taylor, very publicly fuelled the antipathy to Mr Mitchell's appointment.
While Mr Mitchell was confined to an ante room, there were no charges of "breach of faith" directed at Mr Trimble from London or Dublin. Indeed, British sources insisted: he had "never got as far as committing himself - so raising the suggestion that the two governments invited Mr Mitchell to assume the chairmanship with no guarantee that he would prove acceptable. But this always seemed improbable. London and Dublin after all, had drafted the ground rules with their "sufficient consensus" provision for decision making.
Still, Mr Trimble appeared unmoved even when Mr Major warned him - in the course of a long telephone conversation on Tuesday - that the former senator was "on his way home"
According to UUP sources, Mr Trimble "held his nerve" and determined to unpick last Thursday's London/Dublin agreement on how the negotiations should proceed. Irish sources insist they likewise resolved to "sit it out" and get an agreement. And that leaves the jury still out.
DR PAISLEY insists Mr Trimble achieved nothing. But he is at least premature. Mr Trimble's aides yesterday acknowledged they do not have an alternative set of ground rules. But they have a sheet of blank Paper on which they intend to write their alternative in the coming week. They know the torrent of abuse which will be heaped upon them - internally as well as externally - if they are unable to show significant movement in their direction. And Mr Trimble's determination to wrest power and influence over this process from both Mr Mitchell and the two governments - will be fed by keen awareness that his leadership is set to become the dominant issue in a bitterly contested general election which draws ever closer.
UUP strategists will now reckon the two governments "owe them" for having delivered Mr Mitchell's appointment - which, contrary to some press reports yesterday, they say, is not in any sense conditional. They will presumably veto the idea that it should be for Mr Mitchell to satisfy himself before proposing the appointment of the sub committee on decommissioning, to proceed in parallel to negotiations in the three strands.
They still expect Gen John de Chastelain will preside over a verification and decommissioning process. And they will be expected to press for a clearer commitment on a timetable for the decommissioning they insist is necessary if the former paramilitaries are to "honour" a commitment to exclusively peaceful and democratic means "before, during and after" talks.
Key Irish players last night were at least pleased that potential disaster had been averted, that Mr Mitchell was installed, the talks were up and running and that they lived "to fight another day".
But one Irish source last night acknowledged that Dublin's capacity in the ongoing negotiation had been "hampered" by the crucial event of the past week which took place far from Stormont.
The murder of Det Garda Jerry McCabe seemed almost discounted, last weekend, as media speculation built about the IRA's ceasefire intentions in advance of Monday's talks. But it has the potential at least to upset all political calculations and rewrite the political agenda.
Maol Muire Tynan reported in this newspaper yesterday that the Government considers Sinn Fein to be facing "an acid test of their democratic credentials". Unionists believe their case on decommissioning was made when the IRA bomb exploded in London's Docklands on February 9th. They see it reconfirmed in Limerick last Friday. Should the IRA announce a ceasefire tomorrow, unionists would surely question Mr Adams's ability to deliver following what might well have been act of defiance of the present republican leadership.
Sir Patrick Mayhew, too, then, is premature in hailing "a turning point". Mr Trimble will be busy turning the screws. Having avoided blame for breakdown in week one, the UUP leader will certainly attempt to shift the onus and the spot light elsewhere.
The tragic events in Adare may have helped him immeasurably.
