Ten days that shook life back into the power-sharing project

"One with God is a majority," the old preacher man would declare triumphantly

"One with God is a majority," the old preacher man would declare triumphantly. It's been clear for some time that, for as long as he maintained a majority of just one, Mr David Trimble would persist with his power-sharing project. On Saturday, he survived by a slightly more comfortable margin, clutching victory from the jaws of defeat by 53 per cent to 47 per cent. In all the circumstances, it was a remarkable achievement, and it was very much Mr Trimble's personal triumph.

Just 10 days earlier, the Ulster Unionist leader had left Westminster for Belfast dispirited and fatalistic. Concerted Dublin/Sinn Fein/ SDLP pressure had seemingly closed off Mr Blair's capacity for further concessions. Mr Trimble's deputy, Mr John Taylor, was declaring against the Hillsborough deal as it stood, and his other key Assembly allies had reportedly suffered a collective loss of nerve.

With the Ulster Unionist Council due to meet in just three days, Mr Trimble finally decided to go for it. However, he knew he had given himself precious little time to sell the IRA promise to put weapons beyond use, and muttered darkly about what might prove to be a "kamikaze" mission.

When the UUP Assembly Party met on the Thursday morning, at least six of his colleagues agreed with that assessment - and Mr Trimble was persuaded to postpone. Two days earlier, a worried Tony Blair had asked if he would be any stronger at the end of another week, and there was no certainty in Mr Trimble's reply. Indeed, the fear was that Mr Trimble's colleagues would burden him with additional conditions and requirements, and that delay would facilitate the further erosion of his base.

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In the end, the gamble paid off - if only just. Often and fairly criticised for his management skills, Mr Trimble worked the party lists as never before, talking to key delegates in a series of meetings while undertaking a sustained and impressive media offensive. An insider confirms that the recovery was "entirely down to him". Yet by last Friday evening, defeat still seemed a real possibility.

Mr Trimble had resisted the "blackmail" approach implicit in a "back me or sack me" appeal to his party. By Saturday morning, all such hesitation was gone; the motion presented to the council amounted to precisely such a pitch. And, for added security, the delegates were denied the opportunity to vote for or against Mr Jeffrey Donaldson's alternative policy.

It may be fashionable to rubbish "wee Jeffrey". But he, too, had fought a good campaign. Certainly, anyone with a feel for the state of unionist opinion would have known that his alternative policy presentation on Friday morning was a very clever move indeed. It had its genesis, after all, in an idea floated last May by Mr Taylor - and one which some of Mr Trimble's backbenchers were actively promoting a short time ago.

So the Lagan Valley MP, too, was able to claim something of a victory. Mr Trimble had seen his leadership election majority of two months earlier more than halved, and his 1998 post-Good Friday majority of 71 per cent reduced to a perilous-looking 53 per cent.

Those who demanded in advance that the anti-agreement unionists this time accept the party's verdict were left whistling in the wind. It was clear within minutes of the vote that the battle for the soul of unionism would rage on. And Mr Trimble will have noted that, even as they praised him and welcomed his victory, serious commentators in Britain and Ireland yesterday wondered if he could now reverse the process of decline.

He has more than a fighting chance. Only two of his Assembly members, Mr Roy Beggs Jnr and Mr Derek Hussey, declared against him, and the assumption is that they will now fall into line. (Should that assumption prove wrong, and the two men defect, then the anti-agreement bloc would be just a further two short of the "wrecking" 60 per cent of the total unionist representation at Stormont.)

Far from being terrified by the prospect, Mr Trimble will probably be relieved if the DUP's Mr Peter Robinson and Mr Nigel Dodds quit their ministerial posts. The UUP would acquire an additional high-profile department, and Mr Trimble will be expecting his ministers, and his committee chairmen and committee members, to carry the fight to the DUP. With devolution restored, there will again be the power to make decisions, to show that politics works, and (which is what it all comes down to in the end) to win party and electoral advantage. However, the prospects for the Trimbleistas probably hang as much on the performance of others as it does on their own - and the omens are not great for an immediate outbreak of goodwill among the pro-agreement parties. The impression is now widespread that the First Minister, Mr Trimble and the Deputy First Minister, Mr Mallon, cordially detest each other. Sinn Fein, meanwhile, has branded as "racist" and "sectarian" the assertion by Mr Trimble that they are not yet "housetrained".

London and Dublin will be hoping that things said in the heat of a campaign can be quickly forgotten. But neither government will be able to duck close questioning on what they may have said to help Mr Trimble through - especially on the RUC name change. The debate on policing legislation will run for months and months. And what of that "concession" to Mr Taylor on the flying of the Union flag over government buildings? Are Mr Martin McGuinness and Ms Bairbre de Brun really going to comply with the unionist demand? And is Mr Peter Mandelson really going to make them? Unionists did not enjoy Sinn Fein's "in your face" approach to government last time round, but it is not clear that they have any basis for expecting things will be much different now. The core question - are ministers to be collectively responsible and accountable? - seems unresolved, and, as such, to contain the potential for continuing unionist grief.

Add to that the ever-present risk of "events". There is still the real danger of inter-loyalist tensions spilling over into sectarian attacks on Catholics; the possibility of a dissident republican "spectacular"; or the likelihood of one or other of the organisations now on ceasefire finding need for a fresh round of "punishment" attacks.

Mr Donaldson and his allies will be monitoring all of this. Above all, however, they will be tracking the IRA's promised confidence-building measures (opening some weapons dumps to inspection) and its renewed engagement with Gen de Chastelain's commission.

Mr Trimble has not tied himself this time to dates and deadlines, but it takes only 60 signatures to convene an emergency meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council. With that weapon in their armoury, anti-agreement unionists will continue their battle for supremacy within the UUP.

Many expect that the South Antrim by-election will become a mini-referendum on the agreement. Significantly, Mr David Burnside, the fancied candidate - already being spoken of as a potential future leader - backed Mr Donaldson against Mr Trimble and Mr Taylor on Saturday.

By the time that contest takes place - Mr Trimble might wish to delay it until September - the other UUP constituency associations will be preparing for a general election. Every nomination battle will be bitterly fought by pros and antis, in an atmosphere reminiscent of 1974 with its Faulknerite connotations of "pledged" and "unpledged" unionists.

There is talk now of a determined attempt by the Trimbleistas to unseat the Rev Martin Smyth and Mr William Ross, although they spectacularly failed to select one of their own when there was a vacancy in North Down. The DUP has high hopes of taking North Belfast from the Trimble loyalist, Mr Cecil Walker, and should Mr Ken Maginnis retire, there is no guarantee that a unionist of any shade will be able to hold on to Fermanagh. The mystery is how on earth UUP managers can produce a manifesto on which Mr Trimble and his fellow candidates - a majority of them almost certainly against him - would be able to base an appeal to their electorate.

Discussing with Mr Gerry Adams the first worrying indications for Mr Trimble at the Assembly election count in 1998, the Sinn Fein president rightly surmised that it would be "trench warfare" all the way thereafter. He was clearly thinking of the test of will between Sinn Fein and the UUP.

Nearly two years on, Mr Trimble has to continue the trench warfare on all fronts. He is entitled to savour Saturday's victory. But the narrowness of its margin brings with it the wearying knowledge that he will probably have to do it all over again.