Widespread briefing of Provisional IRA members has taken place since the Belfast Agreement and, according to usually reliable sources, the message to the membership has been that the "armed struggle" is over.

Reports of two separate briefings which have come to the notice of The Irish Times indicate an identical message is being passed down the ranks in different areas:

. that the agreement was "better than expected".

. that the Northern Ireland Assembly is part of "transitional" arrangements.

that there would be no further point in continued violence, as within "10 to 15 years" (the same figures were used in both briefings) there would be sufficient "demographic" change in the North's population to provide for a nationalist majority in favour of reintegration.

According to republican sources the message, reinforced by the release of all prisoners within two years and the promise of peace for the first time in a generation, has been very widely accepted by the IRA membership in the North.

It is understood the Sinn Fein negotiators at Stormont rejected a four-year period for the prisoners' release, and their point of acceptance came late on the Thursday night with the offer of a two-year release deadline. This was immediately communicated to IRA prisoners in the Maze in a visit by a senior republican figure, and immediately accepted.

Winning over republican prisoners was the defining moment in the republican acceptance of the deal. Their consent made it impossible for elements on the outside to reject.

The uniformly positive briefings to IRA groups contrast sharply with similar briefings only a month or two ago that the ceasefire would be "reviewed" around July. It would appear that the leadership had sought to keep its membership prepared for a return to violence up to the last moment of negotiations. By Good Friday morning the message was going out that the war was over.

According to sources the movement, comprising its political and military wings, in the Northern republican strongholds is solidly behind the Adams-McGuinness leadership.

Even the prospect of Sinn Fein members taking seats in an Assembly has apparently not caused serious dissent despite that fact that opposition to Stormont was formerly a mainstay of Sinn Fein policy.

According to the sources, there has been no discussion about arms decommissioning. There is particular concern among security forces North and South about half the estimated 6,000kg of Semtex smuggled into the State in the mid-1980s, still hidden in bunkers and still in usable condition.

Semtex is the core element of the Provisionals' arsenal and the only item in which there is any decommissioning interest, senior security figures say. While it remains in the hands of the IRA there is an underlying threat that it will be used by rejectionist elements to mount a renewed campaign.

These elements have obtained limited supplies of the explosives, possibly from robbing IRA arms dumps in the Border area. The IRA has not moved against these groups, but sources say this may happen if the rejectionists threaten to destabilise the settlement.

The anti-agreement elements have been suffering serious setbacks as a result of Garda seizures and arrests, and have been accusing the IRA of passing information to the Garda about their activities.

Those opposed to the direction taken by the leadership describe the agreement as a sell-out. Some have pointed out that the Provisionals came into existence in the aftermath of the 1969 ardfheis when they rejected a leadership proposal to drop the "abstentionist" policy of refusing to recognise or take seats in Dail Eireann, never mind a Northern Ireland Assembly.

The pro-agreement elements' reply is that the intervening years of armed violence have secured the "transitional" arrangements, including the cross-Border institutions.

According to sources there was concern among the pro-agreement republicans that David Trimble, the Ulster Unionist Party leader, would be defeated at last Saturday's meeting of his party Council.

THE Sinn Fein ardfheis debate about the party's position in respect of the agreement tended to support the existing view that opposition to it is largely confined to the Republic and Border areas.

According to the Northern sources the opposition springs largely from the elements which opposed the whole peace process, and that those opposed to the process as reformist are those who had escaped the brunt of the loyalist and security force actions.

Security sources feel there are still testing months ahead for the IRA. It is expected the maverick elements on both the loyalist and republican sides will carry out assassinations and that loyalist rejectionists may try to attack a target in the Republic.

The onset of the marching season will increase pressure on both sides. The sudden decision on Wednesday to defer an announcement on rerouteing by the Parades Commission is likely to cause uneasiness among loyalists and might indicate that the North is in for another fraught marching season.

One issue which will arise over the coming months and years is how to legitimately reintegrate and occupy the hundreds of IRA members who have long been engaged in planning and carrying out violent acts.

There are several historical precedents for major criminal organisations arising from the remains of nationalist resistance movements. There are abiding concerns among the security forces that some IRA elements, armed with years of terrorist experience and weapons, could pose a serious problem if they veered into criminal activity.

Another probable development is that the Provisional IRA will remain as a background paramilitary wing to Sinn Fein, in much the same way as the Official IRA continued in existence - known as "Group B" - behind the Republican Clubs/Workers' Party after it declared its permanent ceasefire.