I HAVE a question this morning for the deputy leader of the Labour Party, Mr Ruairi Quinn. Would he, if made leader of his party in the coming weeks agree to take Labour back into coalition with Fianna Fail? This is a vital question, which is not being addressed in this campaign, because massed ranks of vested interests are ensuring that, once again, we are being misled into believing that there are only two alternatives in this election.
It is now a distinct possibility that neither of the two "alternatives" will get enough support to form a government, and that, when the votes are counted next Saturday, the only real possibility of a coherent government will be a coalition between Labour and Fianna Fail.
Of course, Mr Quinn may refuse to answer on the basis that the question is (a) hypothetical and (b) irrelevant. But postelection arithmetic may make Labour's attitude to this question imperative, and it is better that it be addressed now, before the election, rather than afterwards.
As the present leader of the Labour Party, Mr Dick Spring, has explicitly ruled out the possibility of the party under his leadership going into coalition with Fianna Fail, in the event that the outcome presents only this possibility, the choice will be between another election and a change of leadership in the Labour Party.
I have heard it said in this campaign that this is the first election for a long time in which the electorate has been presented with two coherent alternatives. This is untrue. In both 1989 and 1992 the electorate was indeed presented with coherent alternatives, which it rejected. The 1989 campaign was fought between Fianna Fail and an alliance between the PDs and Fine Gael. The 1992 campaign was conducted between Fianna Fail and the first proposed "rainbow coalition", to include Fine Gael, Labour and the PDs.
In this sense, there is absolutely no difference between the current campaign and recent previous elections. Perhaps in the future political commentators will find it just as difficult to remember that the 1997 election was fought between, on the one hand, Fine Gael, Labour and DL, and on the other, Fianna Fail and the PDs.
Much has been made of the alleged "outrage" of Labour voters when Mr Spring decided to take the party into coalition with Fianna Fail. But we need to be a little more specific than the wishful thinkers of political commentary might desire. The people most "outraged" by Mr Spring's decision were not Labour supporters, but some highly vocal pundits and a few Dublin 4 types who had switched their allegiance from the PDs.
What outraged Labour voters, to the extent that they were outraged at all, was the fact that, in agreeing to coalesce with Fianna Fail, Mr Spring backtracked on the rhetoric of the campaign, in which Labour had adopted an antagonistic position towards FF.
It is true to say that Mr Spring did not, on that occasion, explicitly rule out a deal with Fianna Fail. However, the tone of the Labour campaign, which was targeted at the "culture" of Fianna Fail, amounted to the same thing. It would therefore not have been presumptuous of the average voter to decide that, whatever else would come out of the election, there was no chance of a Labour/FF coalition.
Afterwards, what some voters objected to was not that the politicians put their heads together and came up with the best solution short of an election, but that the only such solution remaining was one that had not been canvassed at the hustings.
When hardy came to hardy, Mr Spring bit the bullet. In implicitly admitting the folly of his election pronouncements and by standing up to the wishful thinkers, he suggested himself as a leader of courage and vision. However, two years later, we had reason to doubt these qualities, when he brought down one of the best governments in decades in what history will be unable to explain other than as a fit of pique and egotism.
Subjected to the drip drip of the wishful thinkers, Mr Spring capitulated and gave the pathological anti Fianna Filers what they desired.
THIS time, under pressure from the same quarters, Mr Spring has straighforwardly stated - at his party's recent conference in Limerick - that he is opposed to a deal with Fianna Fail, even if the alternative is opposition.
Even allowing for Mr Spring's verbal elasticity, this appears to be a definitive position. Mr Spring is not alone in seeking to withhold this option from the electorate. He is joined in this objective by the national newspapers which, in most of the polls conducted in this campaign, have refused to explore the extent of public support for this option, and have only raised the question in the dying days of the campaign.
Despite the apparent public indifference to this option, I believe it is capable of drawing in a large amount of latent support so long as it is canvassed in advance of the election.
Mr Spring's declaration, however, might be said to be less confining of the Labour Party than of himself in his capacity as leader. A different leader might open up different possibilities. Perhaps Mr Spring will find it in himself to consider the national interest rather than simply talking about it.
This matter is far from academic. The existing "alternatives" are not alternatives at all. There is no difference between them on economic issues. The only issue on which the outcome of this election will have any bearing is the Northern peace process. The present Rainbow has had 2 1/2 years to prove wrong those of us who said it was not up to the job, and has failed to do so. Whether because of its constituent qualities of Redmondism, Stickyism or whatever, its stewardship of the peace process has been a disaster. But there is no reason to expect that any government which included the Progressive Democrats would be any better.
The most desirable outcome of this election, therefore, would be to set right the mistake of 1994, when Albert Reynolds's administration was summarily removed from office, and allow Fianna Fail and Labour to proceed with the strategy of pursuing peace without agendas. Moreover, with Mr Spring and his advisers out of the picture, there is no obvious reason why such an administration could not run its full term.
This is where Mr Quinn, as the most likely successor to Mr Spring, enters the picture. He must know, as I do, that there is no real hostility, either among Labour supporters or the public in general, to a coalition between his party and Fianna Fail. All he needs to do is gently hint that such an outcome would not be, from his point of view, the worst thing in the world.
He has three whole days in which to give the electorate a real choice, and save Ireland from the lash of the PDs.