Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga, the Archbishop of Tegucigalpa, Honduras - remember this name. Earlier this week, while Irish attention was engaged in a "Brady v Connell" debate regarding the new Irish Cardinal, the Archbishop of Dublin, Dr Desmond Connell, Vatican commentators were concluding that the next Pope may well come from South America.

Some commentators were even adding Cardinal Maradiaga's name to the already lengthy list of ante-post favourites in the Great Conclave Classic.

Pope John Paul II's decision to name 37 new cardinals has prompted a flurry of analysis of the next papal election. Given the 80-year-old Pope's ill health, that analysis is only inevitable since 32 of the new nominees will be cardinal electors (cardinals under 80 years of age) and since the next pope may be one of those 32.

Even allowing for the unpredictable nature of a conclave, intriguing considerations emerge from the make-up of the new, 128-strong body of cardinal electors. For a start, European cardinals remain in the minority (6068). Secondly, the fact that there are now more South American cardinals (26) than Italian cardinals (24) consolidates an ongoing trend throughout the past century. After all, 100 years ago Italian cardinals accounted for more than 60 per cent of the college. Thirdly, much has been read into the fact that 17 of the new cardinals come from Latin America, Asia or Africa, while a further 11 are curia men, i.e. tried and true Vatican insiders.

At first glance, these geopolitical mathematics might seem meaningless. Curia sources this week were reluctant to over-attribute significance to the 37 cardinals named, saying it was only "normal" that important diocesan seats such as New York, Washington, Westminster, Buenos Aires, Bogota, Bombay, Caracas, Lima, Lisbon, Toledo, San Paolo, Santiago and Turin should be cardinal postings. Likewise it is only "normal" (in Holy See logic) that those heading important Vatican "ministries" such as the Congregation of Bishops, the Congregation for Catholic Education, the Congregation for the Cause of Saints, etc should also be made cardinals.

In the context, however, of a papal election where cardinals may have to choose between an ultra-conservative and a relative conservative, between an ultratraditionalist and a potential innovator, between a curia figure and a local churchman or between the church's version of "right" and "left", then the geopolitics could become important.

One uses the inverted commas because terms such as left and right could be misleading in relation to a body in which 118 of the 128 members have been appointed by the theologically conservative John Paul II. In a sense, there is no "left" in the college of cardinals.

Those cardinals and bishops in local churches, many of them in the so-called first world, who feel that the curia has too much control over church affairs and Catholic teaching could find themselves facing a powerful alliance of the curia and Latin America, two potentially ultraconservative forces. Such a power bloc could guarantee the election of a "developing-world" pope (probably Latin American, hence the touting of Cardinal Maradiaga's credentials). e Luis Cipriani of Lima, could be indicative.

Then there are those who believe that in the wake of the epoch-making pontificate of John Paul II, the curia will lobby hard for a lower-profile candidate from their own ranks. In that context, the nomination of Mgr Giovanni Battista Re, Prefect of the Congregation of Bishops, someone widely touted as "papable" in recent weeks in Italy, could prove significant.

While Rome and the Vatican pondered the impact of the forthcoming February 21st consistory, curia insiders expressed surprise this week at the negative reaction prompted by the Archbishop of Dublin's appointment.

As we reported 10 days ago, informed Vatican sources did not expect Dr Brady to be nominated cardinal. Indeed, one source told The Irish Times he had not expected any Irish church figure to be made cardinal, but that if there was to be an Irish appointment, then Dr Connell was the logical choice.

The Archbishop of Dublin already has a high "visibility factor" in Rome thanks to his work on various Vatican councils and congregations. But his outspoken defence of rigidly orthodox church teaching has been much appreciated in Rome, especially by John Paul II.

Another senior curia figure pointed out that the Archbishop of Armagh's prospects of being made a cardinal were greatly hampered by the fact his predecessor, the Archbishop (Emeritus) of Armagh, Cardinal Cahal Daly, is still very much alive and well, despite his 83 years.

Vatican sources also suggested that the appointment of Dr Connell would underline the importance attached by Rome to the seat of Dublin, easily the largest diocese in the country and now home to more than one third of Irish Catholics.

In all probability, then, there will be just one Irish vote in the next conclave - that of Cardinal Connell. Will his choice fall on Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras?