After yesterday's 90-minute meeting in London between the Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, it became clear that there would be no surprise elements.
Mr Ahern and, later, the Northern Secretary, Peter Mandelson, came out of Downing Street to list off the same old issues: decommissioning, Patten, demilitarisation, the republican dissident threat and loyalist violence.
By the time Mr Ahern and Mr Blair meet again - in Dublin next Wednesday - they hope their officials, in constant contact with the Northern parties, will be close to a final formula containing measures to deal with each of these familiar matters.
There is no rabbit waiting to be pulled out of a hat. The best guess of Irish and British sources last night was that the formula would contain some give and take on police reform, new evidence of the "Real IRA" threat being dealt with, and the expectation of a further IRA gesture, action and/or statement on decommissioning.
After that, it will be up to the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble. The two governments can try to bring the positive elements of the Belfast Agreement to the fore, according to a Dublin source, but then Mr Trimble must to sell it to his party's council shortly. There is uncertainty in Government circles as to whether he can do it.
The agenda is limited. The Taoiseach has said police reform is down to five or six issues; in reality it's down to even fewer. For example, nobody believes the initials RUC can now be reinserted into the name of the police force.
What is left for the UUP is some concession on the emblem of the new force - although nobody can think of quite what this could be. In addition, the flying of the Union Jack over police stations is ultimately to be decided at local level, so there is scope to show that the British flag has not necessarily vanished from all police station flagpoles.
With the unionists particularly concerned about issues of symbolism, nationalists are seeking more on structural matters. Nationalists want the role of the Northern Secretary reduced and of local politicians increased on policing boards. They want greater power for the Oversight Commissioner who will oversee the implementation of the reforms. Here there is scope for concessions to nationalists.
Mr Ahern's apparently contradictory comments on police reform in the past few days make sense in this context. Asked on Sunday about the need to help Mr Trimble by making concessions to unionist concerns in relation to police reform, Mr Ahern agreed there should be compromise.
Asked the next day about nationalist concerns about the Bill, he said it should be strengthened to meet nationalist concerns.
It is likely that he holds both positions: the Police Bill could be changed - modestly - to meet different concerns of the two sides.
Nor are the possibilities for give and take confined to the policing is sue. There is clear potential for a trade-off between IRA decommissioning and British demilitarisation, although of course the British would deny any such deal. Last week the British government announced the closure of six more military bases in Northern Ireland, adding further to pressure on the IRA to deliver something real on decommissioning.
With just one inspection of IRA arms of uncertain quantity and quality in the five months since the IRA agreed to move, the weapons issue is once more moving to the top of the agenda. Mr Trimble's opponents are determined again to tie him to a "no guns, no government" position.
There is serious concern that any IRA move must therefore be clear-cut and soon. Once the Ulster Unionist Council issues an ultimatum, Government sources fear the chance of a meaningful gesture will evaporate. That may leave a window of just over a fortnight.
A further inspection of IRA arms and a positive report of such an inspection is an absolute necessity for Mr Trimble to survive. It is widely accepted that he simply could not get through an Ulster Unionist Council meeting having to tell them there had been no movement whatever on decommissioning since before the summer.
There is believed to be an attempt to get more from the IRA - possibly a statement to the effect that it will engage properly with the de Chastelain commission to work to wards decommissioning. However, Mr Trimble will have no magic formula before he puts his authority on the line at the forthcoming Ulster Unionist Council meeting.
Dublin and London can perhaps give him a relatively modest concession on policing and some further evidence of action against republican dissidents. The republican movement can produce some further movement on decommissioning.
After that he will be on his own, repeating his argument that there is no alternative except direct rule, unionism being out in the cold again with paramilitary organisations still intact. In short: neither guns nor government.
