Given that the Mercury Music Prize (the best British or Irish album of the year) has as its criteria "exciting and challenging" pieces of work, it's always a true and accurate reflection of contemporary musical trends. Now in its sixth year, previous winners have included Primal Scream (Screamadelica), and Portishead and Suede for their eponymous debut efforts.

Irish albums have never fared very well in the Mercury - maybe it's something to do with the "exciting and challenging" bit - although My Bloody

Valentine's Loveless (1992) made a big impression on the judging panel (largely thanks to some sterling work by the Irish judge, Dave Fanning) but narrowly failed to make the shortlist. There was definitely a point to be made for

Rollerskate Skinny's Horsedrawn Wishes last year but that, too, failed to make the cut. To date the only Irish album to make it to the final ten remains U2's

Passengers album - interestingly enough, this year's Pop failed to make the top

10 - and here are the 10 albums that were judged better. Remember that when they say "album of the year" they mean the year from June to June, if you know what I mean.

Beth Orton: Trailer Park.

For some reason I always thought she was from the US but she is in fact from

Norwich. A bit hippy chick (acoustic guitars and deep lyrics, that sort of thing) but a very good songwriter, Orton also enjoys a secondary career as guest vocalist with the likes of Red Snapper and The Chemical Brothers. Funnily enough, this album hasn't sold too much - just 50,000 copies.

Chemical Brothers: Dig Your Own Hole.

Preceded by a number one single, Setting Sun with the elder Gallagher on lead vocals, this album was hyped beyond belief on release - with about 75 per cent of it justifying the extravagant claims made on its behalf. It charted at number one on the first week of release and stayed in the top 20 for the following three months. Close, but no cigar.

John Tavener: This falls under the nouveau classical banner and has all manner of cello playing and spooky Russian choirs. Tavener is a favourite of the

Mercury people - he was also shortlisted in 1992 for a better album, The

Projecting Veil. Very strange, but rewarding in parts. Hasn't a hope. Mark-

Anthony Turnage.

Your Rockaby. Another classical affair. Turnage is a Mendelssohn scholar who has gained a reputation for his highly lyrical works and his complex instrumental textures. The album showcases the excellent saxophone playing of soloist Martin Robinson. Quite jazzy, but don't let that put you off.

Primal Scream: Vanishing Point. The ex-winners emerged from a long time in the studio with a new bass player (Mani from The Stone Roses) and a collection of songs which make it sound as if their last Rolling Stones tribute album -

Give Out But Don't Give Up - never existed. Much more Screamadelica in feel, the album features collaborations from Glen Matlock, Marco Nelson and Augustus

Pablo with some additional production work by Andrew Weatherall. It has already sold a quarter of a million copies, but is very much an outside bet here.

The Prodigy:

Fat Of The Land. Early indications always had this down as a big, booming techno-meets-punk record. The first single, Firestarter, is something of a phenomenon in itself while the second, Breathe, with its relentless sub-sonic bass and eery guitars, is probably their most complete work to date. Strangely enough, the rest of the album doesn't hold the standard of the first two singles and there's something a bit pathetic about a white, middle-class boy calling one of his songs Smack My Bitch Up. Despite this, the album has already sold well over a million and has gone to number one in the US. This is the Prodigy's second Mercury Music Prize-shortlisted album.

Radiohead: OK Computer. As different from The Bends (1995) as that album was from Pablo Honey (1993), Radiohead have finally managed to merge their massive critical acclaim with massive commercial sales. A bit strange, this, especially the more prog rock and early Pink Floyd-type moments but a very complete, clever and memorable bunch of songs. This should be the winner but probably won't be.

Roni Size: New Forms. An exciting mix of reggae, Seventies funk, soul, rare groove, hip hop and drum'n'bass, this is very much the cutting edge dance album of the year. No surprise to find out that Size and the group, called Reprazent, come from Bristol - but very surprising to find that this album made it into the top 40. Very "out there" and very good. Bringing albums like this to our attention, is what the Mercury Music Prize is for; having said all that, it will probably come last.

The Spice Girls: Spice. Yes, you've read it right, it is them. Two reasons not to be shocked about this: first, Take That were shortlisted two years ago and second, the Mercury people have a bit of a "let's be ironic" vibe about them. They wouldn't go so far as to let this win, though.

Coming Up. Another ex-winner, Suede really came off the ropes after losing

Bernard Butler to fight back with this great collection of songs. It has already produced at least four top 10 singles (Trash, Beautiful Ones, Saturday Night and Lazy) but the only thing that might hold this back is Brett Anderson overdosing the helium in the studio - remix those vocals now.

So there you have it. Just for the record, William Hill have installed The

Prodigy as 2/1 favourites, with The Spice Girls and Radiohead on 3/1. Don't waste any money on Suede because as good as the album is, they're not going to give them the prize for a second time. My money is on Radiohead.