THE potential of the Mitchell report to generate early all party talks in Northern Ireland and to ease relations between the two governments has been seriously damaged by John Major's precipitate announcement that elections should be held before such negotiations.
The British position represented a clear departure from last November's agreed communique between Mr Major and Mr Bruton, on the eve of President Clinton's visit. On that occasion, the two governments spoke of encouraging and facilitating all party talks by the end of February, through the use of a twin track process.
The establishment of an International Body on Decommissioning, beaded by Senator Mitchell was reluctantly accepted by Mr Major as a means of addressing his government's demand for the destruction of some IRA weapons in advance of talks. But, even under significant US pressure, he reserved the right to reject its findings.
The six democratic principles which paramilitary organisations would have to embrace before entering all party talks were deemed acceptable by Mr Major. But the alternative strategy devised by the International Body to facilitate their entry into such talks was not. Instead, Mr Major threw his weight behind Ulster Unionist proposals for direct elections and the creation of democratic, negotiating mandates.
This political approach had been vehemently rejected by the coalition (government and by the main nationalist parties as a means of getting into talks. And both John Bruton and Dick Spring are understood to have been taken by surprise by the level of commitment displayed. They had expected the matter to be mentioned by Mr Major as an alternative avenue to be explored during the twin track process. Instead, it emerged as the only available alternative to his decommissioning demand.
There were echoes of Margaret Thatcher's "Out, Out, Out" responses to the work of the New Ireland Forum way back when Garret FitzGerald was Taoiseach. On that occasion, Dr FitzGerald was not aware of the sharpness of Mrs Thatcher's comments when he was interviewed by RTE.
Yesterday, Mr Bruton seemed to find himself in a similar situation when he talked of discussing the establishment of an elected body in the twin track negotiations Mr Major, at the same time, was talking of a fait accompli. An elected body or a decommissioning gesture were the only ways into all party talks, he said, for the unionists would not operate with anything less.
Some chinks of light showed from a Dublin perspective in Mr Majors offer to open discussions with the various parties concerning their reservations and on the terms of reference and the structure of such a body. But he intimated there was no going back and he told John Hume he "hoped to bring him with him".
A Government spokesman maintained valiantly that nothing had changed since the November Summit when both governments had all party talks by the end of February. He insisted that official contact including a telephone call between Mr Bruton and Mr Major on Tuesday, had confirmed that situation as late as Tuesday night.
IN SPITE of the Government's face saving efforts, however, there was no doubt that the rules had changed. Mr Major had got out from under US pressure on the publication of the Mitchell - report and had presented a new political formula which aimed to capture the democratic high ground.
John Hume was so furious over the shift in political direction that he accused the Prime Minister of buying unionist votes in an attempt to hang on to power.
Bertie Ahern appealed to Mr Major "not to move the goalposts once again and to act in good faith with the communique of November 28th. The Prime Minister, he said, appears to have effectively rejected the body's report as a means of moving directly towards all party talks ". . . Such a development," he warned, "will not be accepted by nationalist Ireland and we are not going down that road".
Gerry Adams accused Mr Major acting in bad faith by swapping one precondition to all party talks for another and claimed he had "dumped the twin track process".
Nationalists' forces were in disarray and unionists, for the first time in years, were in the driving seat. It must have been sweet manna for Mr Trimble's followers who had languished in the political desert as the two governments agreed the Downing Street Declaration and the Framework Document.
Mr Trimble was so enthused by Mr Major's support that he spoke about holding an election in April or May And Peter Robinson forgot to talk about a sell out when faced by Mr Hume's obvious anger and discomfiture.
By cherry picking from the Mitchell report and launching his own political strategy without fully alerting the Irish Government, Mr Major has secured an important strategic advantage. But, by making his announcement within hours of Mr Mitchell's press conference, he took the immediate pressure off the IRA and loyalist groups to accept the six decommissioning principles in that body's report.
A report which had been broadly, if cautiously, welcomed by nationalist and unionist groupings, with the exception of the DUP, was suddenly pushed into the political shadows. Mr Mitchell's six principles were salvaged for their long term political usefulness, but the rest of the report was largely ignored.
Under Mr Major's new political agenda an elected body may emerge sooner, rather than later, at a price of distrust and bad feeling between the governments. And the underlying message to President Clinton is "stop dabbling in United Kingdom politics". 96611500010