WHEN Chancellor Helmut Kohl leaves Bonn tomorrow for his annual fast in an Austrian spa resort, he will have a clear target in mind. He wants to lose as many pounds as the opposition Social Democrats lost percentage points in Sunday's three state elections. If he succeeds, it will be a much slimmer Dr Kohl who returns to his desk next month because, in an electoral disaster that turned "Super Sunday" into "Black Sunday", the SPD saw its share of the vote slump by almost 7, per cent.
"If the word setback means anything, this is one," crowed the Chancellor yesterday, boasting that his centre right coalition is now stronger than ever.
And most political observers in Germany agree that, after almost 14 years as Chancellor, the Rhineland heavyweight appears impossible to separate from power.
His achievement on Sunday in improving the performance of his own Christian Democrats as well as giving the Liberal Free Democrats a helping hand over the 5 per cent electoral hurdle is all the more remarkable given the nature of the campaign that preceded it. While the Social Democrats cast long held principles to the wind in favour of an anti European and anti immigrant stance, Dr Kohl chose to announce massive spending cuts just five days before the vote.
Ignoring a flurry of opinion polls claiming that most Germans oppose his plans for closer political and economic integration in Europe, the Chancellor trusted his instincts and held firm to his commitment to a single European currency. He lashed out yesterday at the SPD's anti Euro campaign as "the shabbiest propaganda of its kind" but fainter hearts within his own party had also begun to distance themselves discreetly from Dr Kohl's Euro enthusiasm in recent weeks.
Such doubts will now be silenced as Dr Kohl heads towards the Turin summit with his authority strengthened within Germany and his role in the EU confirmed as the only national leader with the vision and commitment to lead the European project forward.
GERMANY has been coy until now about its expectations from the IGC, partly to ensure that a common position can be worked out between Bonn and Paris. But Sunday's poll boost is likely to persuade the Chancellor that he can realise his goal of binding Germany into an effective European Union as long as he has the courage to defy shifting public opinion and appeals to the trust the German people undoubtedly have in him.
While Dr Kohl relished his victory yesterday, the Social Democrat chairman, Mr Oskar Lafontaine, sought to put a brave face on Sunday's verdict on his first 100 days as leader. The flamboyant Mr Lafontaine promised last year to revive the fortunes of his demoralised party after the disastrous leadership of the colourless Mr Rudolf Scharping.
Some activists felt uncomfortable about the policy changes he introduced, especially his abandonment of Bonn's traditional bipartisanship on the EU by climbing on the anti Euro bandwagon. But it was the campaign in Baden Wuerttemberg against immigration by ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe that provided the biggest shock to many lifelong Social Democrats.
The voters of Baden appear to have been equally repelled by the strategy, giving the SPD its worst ever result in the state. Former SPD voters who agreed with Mr Lafontaine that foreigners are to blame for Germany's rising unemployment voted instead for the extreme right Republicans.
The depth of the SPD's crisis was evident at the party's post election, press conference in Bonn as normally garrulous figures such as Lower Saxony's prime minister, Mr Gerhard Schroeder, remained silent throughout. Mr Schroeder, whose star has recently been tarnished by a very public break up with his wife, usually cherishes the discomfiture of his party colleagues. But, as one of the chief proponents of the SPD's new populist politics, he is unlikely to reap any rewards from Sunday's disaster.
Despite assurances yesterday to the contrary, the SPD will almost certainly be forced to back gently away from its anti immigrant position and tone down its anti Euro rhetoric. But, as the leader of the Young Socialists called yesterday for "a return to traditional Social Democrat values", it was obvious that an escape from the crisis is a long way off.
Dr Kohl has presided over Germany's highest jobless rate since the second World War and an unprecedented flight of businesses abroad while pushing a policy on Europe that most of his fellow countrymen disagree with. Yet, as Sunday's elections proved, most Germans are still content to place their trust in the Chancellor's instincts and to follow him into the European future he so passionately believes in.
