No supplier of electricity, telecommunications or water would dare say it will definitely be business as usual over the next year or so. The millennium bug is such that the smallest computer chip in the smallest piece of equipment may act-up due to Y2K - and send the whole system into spasm.
It is fair to say, nonetheless, that there is a high probability everything will carry on as normal, because Irish utility providers are well prepared for the big events. With the ESB, Telecom Eireann and Dublin Corporation, for example, the process of ensuring Y2K compliance has been gathering momentum for many months. Most programmes are set to ensure compliance by September.
The ESB is spending more than £11.2 million and has 150 staff on the problem. The company's objective is "business as usual" whether it's operating power-plants, electricity distribution or simply getting the ESB bill right, according to Denis Kelly, Y2K programme manager for power generation.
An inventory has been drawn-up of equipment which may have "Y2K exposure". Where problems are indicated, equipment has often been replaced - it is also ranked in terms of how much damage it could do if it failed. Continuity of power supply is paramount, says Gerry Condon, programme manager for the ESB's Y2K programme. Doing nothing would have meant problems, but exhaustive Y2K-proofing is reducing risk of service interruption.
Test-runs possible in other industries are not feasible in a live system of power generation and distribution - but simulated tests are, and there is the option of switching to manual operation. But should Y2K still manage to cause havoc, there are comprehensive contingency plans in place. The ESB is ensuring its own critical suppliers will be able to meet their obligations too.
WATER, sewerage and traffic are the main concerns of Dublin Corporation when it comes to Y2K. Like the ESB, the Corporation has done an inventory of equipment needing validation: its consultants, Bull Integris, are evaluating its Y2K strategies.
City Engineer Michael Phillips dismisses as "exaggerated" a claim in the report Dublin 2000 that shortcomings in the Y2K water supply system threaten a national emergency. The Corporation is conscious of its health, safety and environmental obligations in supplying water, he says.
Exhaustive checks are being carried out - notably of systems using telemetry (equipment which can pick up signals from remote locations). Computers and phone lines, for example, are used to open or shut a pipe many miles from the control centre. Such processes are routinely used in water supply and sewage treatment. Until 1990, they were operated manually - an option that still exists should problems arise. "We do not foresee pumping stations stopping and sewage backing up into houses or anything like that," Philips says.
The Corporation's main traffic-control system is being upgraded to ensure compliance, while an off-peak Y2K check of traffic management will made in one area of Dublin to check there is no massive snarl-up waiting to happen. MUCH of Telecom Eireann's Y2K work is concentrated on large corporate customers and in ensuring Ireland Inc rides out a potential storm. Its Year 2000 programme manager, Dave Murray, describes the process as ensuring the Celtic Tiger does not fall over. The basic workings of its telecommunications indicates no problems and that includes networks, phones - both standard and mobile - billing and answering machines. Moreover, the company has been classified among the first rank of telecommunications suppliers globally; those who have the best "state of preparedness".
As for ringing mother in Tanzania, Murray says it is less clear whether less developed countries will be compliant, but indications are that the biggest machine on the planet - the world's telephone network - will be in the clear.
The internet may prove to be more problematic, however. Yes, large parts of it will be unaffected, Murray says, but in reality it has elements which amount to "a great big anarchic mess". Thus, inevitably, some sites will disappear come Y2K.
