The cruel irony of the present state of Anglo Irish relations is that some Irish republicans are running the risk of utilising death to throw away their best chance in this century of realising their objectives through life itself. Some but not all.

I will return later to the nature of the deadly debate taking place within the ranks of republicanism.

For the moment let it be said two factor in particular cry out in favour of giving life a chance the demographic pattern as revealed in the recent census and the American engagement in the peace process. Both of these also cry out for the restoration of the IRA ceasefire as well as Sinn Fein's admittance to the all party talks.

The most important consideration the demographic pattern has not received anything like the publicity it merited at the time of the publication of the quite startling 1991 census returns earlier this year.

There are two reasons why the significance of the census has not been on highlighted. Dublin does not wish to appear triumphalist and the unionists don't want to drew attention the Canute like nature of much of their political ideology.

But the indisputable reality of the census returns the first for 20 years not to be disrupted by the IRA which viewed census enumerators as potential spies is that traditional unionism is doomed.

The census shows that since 1993 the majority of new voters coming on the North's register has been Catholic and that Catholics are in a majority under the age of 15, and are almost equal in the 15-20 group(Protestants are in a majority over 20).

But and it is a very big but both the major Protestant denominations the Presbyterian (the largest) and the church of Ireland are suffering from an accelerating Protestant emigration which has parallelled the pill induced fall in the Catholic birth rate.

The aging profile of the Protestant population may be seen most clearly amongst the Presbyterians. They have the lowest birth rate and are the largest group in the over 75 category (30.3 percent).

Overall the once classic perception of the North's population as being two thirds Protestant to one third Catholic has been shattered. The famous million Protestant are now under the 900,000 mark.

In assessing the census returns it should also be noted that these are broken up into four categories Protestant, Catholic, no religion, and non-stated. An authoritative study (Fertility and Population in Ireland North and South, O'Grada and Walsh) has shown that the "non-stated" group is mainly Catholic.

Therefore it is as certain as any thing can be that the next decade will show a marked growth in the Catholic population with a corresponding effect on the numbers supporting nationalist parties.

The Orange Order has not shown the ability and foresight of the Afrikaners, who, long before Mandela was released, recognised that the writing was on the wall and began to plan for an end to apartheid.

Granted David Trimble is no De, Klerk. But unionist representatives are preparing for the inevitable by using the formulation "the greater number" to describe those who will, control the area. Significant changes, such as the control of Belfast City Council being taken out of unionist hands, are expected well before a decade, passes..

These are demonstrable facts which any questioning republican (or unionist) can verify simply by driving through the symbolic heartlands of Belfast, the Falls and Shankill areas.

In Catholic areas one will find 10 flourishing schools (amongst them St Louise's, which with 2,500 pupils is said to be the largest in Europe.) In the Protestant Shankill, however, there is only one secondary school.

Attempts to decry this comparison can, and no doubt will, be made on a number of grounds by showing for example that the Protestants have excellent grammar schools elsewhere and by pointing to the disappointing, results in some Catholic boys" secondary schools. The obvious can also be stated, that the Shankill area is smaller than the Falls.

But there is no avoiding the plain fact that the Falls is a testimony to the traditional Catholic and nationalist concentration on, and sacrifice for, education as a means of advance within the system, any system.

The Shankill, by contrast, has become a glaring condemnation of the unionist political leadership's failure to do anything to provide for its followers, in the face of the disappearance of the apprenticeship culture and the collapse of the smokestack industries.

The David Ervines and the Billy Hutchinsons are sitting at the conference table today because they, and other Protestant loyalist representatives like them, know that traditional unionism has failed them and theirs.

Once, the Shankill automatically got whatever jobs were going. Now there is depression and unemployment in the area. On the Falls Road there is also unemployment, but there is also a tangible optimism and vibrancy, a confidence born out of the years of struggle.

This new, head up attitude is common to nationalists everywhere in the North, mirroring that which exists in the Republic today.

Catholic confidence can be seen most tellingly in the universities. Queens, which was approximately "15 per cent Catholic when I first began researching republicanism over 30 years ago, is now 65 per cent Catholic. Catholics, their numbers augmented annually, and increasingly, by students from the Republic, are also to the fore in Magee and at Coleraine.

But the Protestants are sending their children to British universities, thus both depriving their class of the elite of the future and contributing to Protestant emigration.

What all this means for today's IRA is that if the organisation, or action of it, takes up arms again and goes to war for another 25 years the very best it can hope for is to arrive by means of death and destruction at a situation which, by natural in crease, the Catholic and nationalist population of Northern Ireland would have arrived at in any case.

One understands the frustration and anger which Britain's wanton misuse of the ceasefire opportunity has created in republican circles, but anger and frustration should not be allowed to squander the unique opportunity of finally profiting from the ceasefire which the peace talks now offer.