ONE scenario put forward recently by a security adviser in Dublin was that republican violence would be directed against targets in Britain and loyalist violence would he directed against Dublin, since both sides wanted to avoid fighting each other.

There was, the adviser apparently concluded, the possibility that this might be the first terrorist conflict to take place entirely outside the area of origin, in this case Northern Ireland.

Despite the occasional security scare, there has been no sign of a willingness among the IRA to restart its campaign of assassinations and bombings inside the North since the end of the IRA ceasefire on 9th February.

The greatest amount of IRA activity appears to be taking place in the Republic, where gardai have observed high levels of movement and communication between IRA members believed to be involved in arms supply and logistics support. Most IRA attacks in Britain originate in the Republic and such IRA activity excites fears about bombs in London.

It had been feared that the IRA in the Republic was planning to carry out another bomb attack in Britain before the May 30th elections in Northern Ireland. However, there is still a possibility that an attack might accompany further developments surrounding the political forum in Belfast, which is due to begin its work next week.

One of the reasons for fears of a major IRA bomb attack is that its attempt to bomb Hammersmith Bridge on April 26th was unsuccessful. It was felt that the IRA would try to make up for this failure with another significant attack against an important commercial or infrastructural target in Britain.

There has been no indication, how ever, of a willingness to restart the campaign against the security forces and commercial property in Northern Ireland.

This would precipitate both greatly heightened security force activity in nationalist areas and, almost certainly, a return of loyalist violence against republicans.

Security sources say that loyalists have already sent messages to the IRA and Sinn Fein leadership that it would return to its campaign of assassinating leading republicans if a new IRA campaign was launched in Northern Ireland. Loyalist paramilitary figures refuse to comment on this.

Garda analysis is that the greatest strength of support for an increased IRA campaign exists among republicans living in the Republic and in the border area of south Armaghand Fermanagh. These are the republicans least affected by loyalist violence.

One senior Garda source pointed out that one of the main advocates within the IRA of stepping up lives in Kerry.

Neither a senior security source nor republicans have indicated that decommissioning of IRA arms is a likely prospect, either. The modalities of decommissioning have been under examination by a small inter governmental committee of civil servants from the Northern Ireland, Office (NIO) and the Department of Justice. There is no indication that this group has made any major advances on the issue, nor is there any indication from republicans about a willingness to hand over arms.

There are few, if any, examples internationally of arms decommissioning preceding the peaceful settlement, of conflicts.

There has never been an indication from the IRA that it was contemplating decommissioning. There is, in fact, a growing body of opinion among security sources that the IRA does not actually want republican participation in any all party talks that would be likely to underline the "majority consent" position on the future of Northern Ireland.

The same position on majority consent, reached by the Forum for Peace and Reconciliation in January this year, was rejected by Sinn Fein shortly before the IRA restarted its campaign.

Security sources argue that it is unlikely that republicans would become reinvolved in a "six county" forum, which would almost certainly lead to the same conclusion on the issue of consent.

The IRA statement of Tuesday night, that there is no likelihood of a ceasefire "this side of June", would appear to preclude Sinn Fein participation in the political talks in Northern Ireland and perpetuate the stalemate.

No security source is prepared to make a long term prediction about likely security or political developments. Some Garda and RUC sources are speculating that the IRA itself is uncertain of what direction it should take.