DOORS are closing on the IRA and Sinn Fein across continents as the pan nationalist front fragments and democratic nationalists prepare themselves to deal with the awful prospect of a continuation of republican violence.
A few weeks remain in which the slide towards the abyss may be halted. And, in spite of the damage done to Gerry Adams's authority and prestige by the resumption of the IRA's campaign, he is still seen as an influential player for peace.
Because of that, Mr Adams and his immediate supporters are being treated with particular sensitivity by Fianna Fail. But if the bombing champaign continues, that could quickly change.
Already, there are straws in the wind. Yesterday's longer than expected meeting between Bertie Ahern and Mr Adams was conducted under arrangements designed to keep TV cameras and photographers away. The Fianna Fail leadership was keeping the door to Sinn Fein open but on their terms as they assessed the standing of Mr Adams within the republican movement and the intentions of the IRA army council.
Fianna Fail feels betrayed by the IRA. This was its peace process. It may have been devised by John Hume and Gerry Adams, but it was brought to fruition by Albert Reynolds. Even after the change in government, Fianna Fail remained fully engaged with the peace process and the pan nationalist strategy. And Bertie Ahern played a supportive and encouraging role in and outside the Dail.
When the bombs went off in London, there was no question of a return to the unplanned and temporary coincidence of interests that, existed in the aftermath of the 1985 Anglo Irish Agreement, when both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein rejected, that treaty. This time, Mr Ahern bluntly told republicans there would be a parting of the ways if the violence continued, leading to the eventual isolation of Sinn Fein.
Even before yesterday's meeting, Mr Adams can have been in no doubt of Mr Ahern's flinty attitude. In speeches and articles over recent days, the Fianna Fail leader has lambasted the IRA for repudiating "the many absolute Sinn Fein commitments to an exclusively democratic way forward" for fracturing the nationalist consensus and, perhaps the sharpest cut of all, for breaking its word.
Albert Reynolds had moved Fianna Fail and nationalist Ireland into accepting the principle of unionist and nationalist consent for any political settlement. There was to be no going back. More than that, Fianna Fail was committed to a three strand arrangement which would allow for North/South links, as well as for the continuation of the British connection. And on the basis of "parity of esteem", a "consent" settlement and strong North/South links, it was committed to supporting changes in Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution.
Mr Ahern has described the IRA's decision to breach the ceasefire as "sickeningly unnecessary and incredibly stupid". The talks with Mr Adams were designed to establish just what went wrong for the Sinn Fein leadership what is Mr Adams's present status and authority within the larger organisation, and whether the ceasefire could be retrieved.
THE hope in Fianna Fail is that US pressure, such as that exercised by Mr Bill Flynn in Belfast last Tuesday, will jolt the IRA "hard men" into a reassessment of strategy. George Mitchell is being proposed as a trouble shooter a man who can assess the temper and commitment of the paramilitary organisations to a renewed peace process. A man whose continuing involvement would provide both a guarantee of all party negotiations and furnish the mechanism for parallel decommissioning.
For there is no question of the republican movement being allowed to "cherry pick" from the Mitchell report. An acceptance of Senator Mitchell's six democratic principles by Sinn Fein would not be sufficient. There would also have to be agreement on parallel decommissioning by the IRA in order to rebuild trust and credibility within political negotiations. Because Ahern said, "decommissioning would have to come early, rather than late. I think that is reasonable."
If the peace process is to be "revived, the Fianna Fail leader believes it must happen within a matter of weeks. And he looks to February 29th as an important psychological date. By that time, we should know whether the two government have succeeded or failed in setting a firm date for all party talks, and whether the Northern parties have compromised on an electoral process and on proximity talks.
If the elected politicians cannot display a willingness to compromise in the interests of peace, what hope can be held out for IRA militants? The prognosis is not great. From the North come reports of a resumption of recruitment and targeting by the IRA, the INLA and loyalist paramilitaries of the security forces being heavy handed in their policing of nationalist areas of barricades going up and of the situation sliding back towards violence.
Doors are being nudged shut against Sinn Fein in Dublin, in London and in Washington because of the continuing IRA violence. This is happening, not through political choice, but from a democratic imperative. As Mr Ahern has insisted the republican movement faces a parting of the ways. It can break away from the rest of nationalist Ireland and pursue its paramilitary path in isolation or it can work with other nationalist parties for a political settlement.
On this issue, Fianna Fail is not for turning.
