Baghdad's decision to suspend the monitoring activities of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM), which is responsible for the elimination of Iraq's arms of mass destruction, marks the latest phase in a protracted diplomatic offensive to secure the lifting of sanctions. So far, Iraq has achieved several notable successes on the political level.
The offensive was launched just over a year ago when Baghdad decided to expel US members of UNSCOM inspection teams. At the time the Iraqi leadership carefully prepared for that move by drawing the National Assembly and other policy-making bodies into the decision-making process. The government of the Iraqi President, Mr Saddam Hussein, counted on the overwhelming support of these bodies as well as public opinion, for the punitive sanctions regime - imposed in August 1990 - had caused the deaths of nearly 2.4 million Iraqis, half of them young children. Ordinary Iraqis, well aware that the economy and infrastructure of the country could only be rebuilt once sanctions are lifted, enthusiastically backed their government.
Baghdad also gambled on winning the backing of its Arab neighbours, particularly those in the Gulf, and three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council - France, China and Russia. The Iraqis calculated that the US would not dare to take military action unless it had the support of some of its local Gulf War coalition allies and the passive approval of a majority of Council members.
But the US secured neither. Thus, early this year the US - having deployed an armada and beefed up its troops, missiles and bombers in the Gulf area - retreated from the use of force to compel Iraq to co-operate with UNSCOM. And in June, US ships and soldiers quietly sailed away, leaving behind an adequate but not overwhelming military presence in the Gulf. Baghdad counted this as a major victory.
Last October Iraq accused the Commission's chief, Mr Richard Butler, of extending the work of his teams and evaluators so that sanctions would remain "forever". But the new UN Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, promised Iraq would see "the light at the end of the tunnel of sanctions" as soon as UNSCOM finished its work. Mr Annan also muzzled the often abrasive Mr Butler who, at least in public, has adopted a much more conciliatory and constructive approach.
Last year Iraq claimed that UNSCOM's inspection teams were dominated by US and British experts. Since February Mr Annan has taken personal charge of the disarmament effort and tried to correct the imbalance by initiating periodic reviews by experts from a wider range of countries.
Although this has brought two of the four weapons files - nuclear arms and missiles - near to closure, the chemical and biological weapons files remain, in UNSCOM's view, incomplete. Iraq contests this assessment but can do nothing about it.
The Iraqis also insisted that one particular inspector, the former US marine officer Mr Scott Ritter, was an intelligence agent acting on behalf of Washington, not the UN. In July, Mr Ritter resigned his UNSCOM position and, in a flurry of interviews, admitted working with the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Israel's external intelligence agency, Mossad. Baghdad was overjoyed. Iraq counted both Mr Ritter's departure and his revelations another important victory, for they completely destroyed UNSCOM's credibility in the Arab world and elsewhere.
However, although Mr Butler drew up a "plan of work" which would soon conclude UNSCOM'S inspections and investigations, and Mr Annan promised a thoroughgoing review of progress, neither of these commitments brought an end to sanctions any closer. Baghdad does not yet have the timetable it seeks. This is why the diplomatic offensive continues.
But it is being pursued without much hope of early success, an authoritative Iraqi exile source told The Irish Times. "Both sides are in a no-win situation," he said. "Because of Anglo-American opposition Baghdad cannot secure a clean bill of health from the Security Council, so sanctions stay. And because UNSCOM is regarded as an Israeli tool and Israel continues to block progress in the peace process, the US cannot launch new air raids against Iraq. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, America's best friends in the region, would not tolerate such action.
"The 1991 coalition which enabled the US to drive Iraq out of Kuwait is finished . . . " Although much is made of it in the West, according to this source, no one in the Arab world believes in the Wye agreement, which was concluded in Washington on October 23rd. "Israel has signed many documents but none have been properly implemented. Until the Arabs see real progress on the Palestinian track and negotiations are resumed on the Syrian and Lebanese tracks, the Arabs will keep their distance from Washington," the exile, who requested anyonymity, said.
In the meantime the grip of sanctions is weakening. The Arabs, Turks, French and Russians have expanded trade with Iraq, snatching up limited but lucrative contracts for foodstuffs, medical supplies and other items permitted under the sanctions regime.
There is a constant flow of commercial delegations and high level diplomatic representatives along the 1,000 kilometre road from Amman to Baghdad. This week Baghdad is staging a trade fair, the first since Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990. Many countries within and outside the region are participating.
But the gradual relaxation of sanctions is happening too slowly. More than half Iraq's 20 million people are malnourished and some are starving; children are being deprived of a proper education because schools are in disrepair, there are too few classrooms and they cannot import the books and other materials they need; the elderly and very young are dying for lack of medicines. An entire generation suffers the scourge of sanctions which never seem to end.
