THE IRA activist in west Belfast is far from enthusiastic about the Sinn Fein Ardfheis's weekend. "It will be a complete waste of time," he says.
"It will just be two days of speeches, more speeches, clapping and nobody will be any wiser afterwards about what's happening or where the republican movement is going. We've been kept totally in the dark. We've no input into decisions."
It is easy to predict what will happen at the conference in the Ambassador Cinema in Dublin, he says: "Speakers will condemn British begrudgery, challenge the unionists to be imaginative and insist that the republican movement is strong and united ... There might be a few mild criticisms of the leadership but the overall image will be of one big happy family moving forward together."
The reality is very different. There is no danger of an imminent split, but never has there been such confusion and disillusionment in the republican movement.
"Few volunteers have any faith left in the peace process, says another - source in west Belfast. "There was scepticism about it from the start. Eighteen months later, it's degenerated into a farce. You should hear all she jokes doing the rounds about Gerry Adams and the leadership."
There is widespread support among IRA activists for a full scale return to violence. Dissatisfaction with the peace process is strongest in Border areas, in Armagh and in Belfast. Units in the south and east of the city are particularly keen to restart their campaign in Northern Ireland.
The dissidents, however, have failed to take the initiative. There have been constant mutterings of discontent about the leadership but no outright rebellion.
The hopes of the hardliners rose with the Canary Wharf bomb but have fallen again, explains another source. "The civilian deaths were regrettable but Canary Wharf was a very successful operation from our point of view," he says.
"It was dramatic, high profile and it cost the Brits millions. People on the ground thought there was more to follow but that hasn't happened. There was one bomb which, I believe, wasn't meant to go off and another bomb was left in a bin in a deserted alleyway last week."
"It's not a very impressive record. Of course, there may be logistical problems but I think it's more a matter of the leadership not being sure what to do. They haven't ditched the peace process totally.
"They're still hanging in there and hedging their bets. If they were absolutely determined to return to war they would restart hostilities in the North immediately. They had the perfect excuse when British soldiers went back to patrolling the streets a few weeks ago.
The republican movement is facing a dilemma on reinstating the ceasefire. If it does so, and enters all party talks on June 10th, there is a feeling that Sinn Fein will be "hammered" at the negotiating table.
"The unionists' only concern will be getting the IRA to decommission," says another IRA member. "They've shown no interest in reaching any compromise since the ceasefire began. Why will they suddenly change when they reach the talks table? I can't see any settlement acceptable to republicans coming from all party negotiations. I don't know why Sinn Fein is so keen in getting into them."
Yet if the IRA returns to full scale violence, the republican movement - will face greater political isolation than at any time in the past 25 years. The Sinn Fein leadership will lose credibility at home and abroad.
Some IRA members enthusiastically embrace the idea of a return to conflict regardless of the consequences to themselves or the movement. Others are more reluctant.
Every shade of republican opinion on returning to violence will not be heard at this weekend's ardfheis. The most extreme and hardline voices will be missing. "It's a Sinn Fein, not an IRA event," says one source. "So it will inevitably be less militant. If it as an IRA conference, the peace process wouldn't exist after the first half hour."
