CATCHING UP IS HARD TO DO

THE good times may be here but we still have a distance to go before we the same standard of living as our European counterparts…

THE good times may be here but we still have a distance to go before we the same standard of living as our European counterparts in countries like France and Germany.

When we joined the EU in 1973, the average national income for every Irish person the best measure of comparative living standards was just over 60 per cent of the EU average. Now the figure is around 85 per cent. And rising.

If the economy continues to grow strongly, then we could breach the 90 per cent barrier by the turn of the century. But the race to catch up fully could be a 15 year marathon, the economic experts reckon. And we will only continue to gain ground on the leaders if growth here remains above the average.

So if the economy is booming, as the figures seem to show, who is benefiting from the fruits of growth? And why have Irish living standards not risen as quickly as many people would like?

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One reason is that much of the growth in the economy has gone into increasing employment, rather than towards boosting the living standards of those already in work. With large numbers of young people joining the jobs market each year, the economy has a huge need to create jobs.

The upside of higher employment has been that the tide of emigration has become a trickle, as school and university leavers have got jobs at home. The number of people swelling the ranks of the employed has grown by up to 1,000 per week over the past ear, a dramatic turnaround from the persistent job losses of the 1980s.

For those already in work, the deal struck between employers, unions and the Government in successive national agreements has limited the cash increase in take home pay. According to calculations by NCB Stockbrokers pay has generally risen by around 1 per cent ahead of inflation each year since the national deals started in 1987. Lower taxes have also boosted disposable incomes, bringing the total gain to an average wage earner to 2 per cent ahead of inflation on average over the past eight years.

Such gains for the average earner are not enormous for someone earning £15,000 it's about £300 a year above what would be needed to keep pace with inflation.

There are other reasons, however, apart from rising take home pay and employment, why average living standards are rising. A host of other factors has boosted disposable income. Recent years have been good for business and many company owners and shareholders have benefited accordingly. Anybody involved in the property sector has gained from a soaring market.

MEANWHILE, falling interest rates have put money back into pockets of borrowers. Those relying on interest payments from savings have suffered. However many will have had investments in other areas such as the stock market, where the average share value has more than doubled since 1993. The past few years have also seen healthy rises in farm incomes, although the BSE crisis will hit the sector this year.

Taking all these factors into account, the Economic and Social Research Institute calculates that over the past couple of years disposable incomes have risen by 6 to 7 per cent a year on average, or up to 5 per cent ahead of the rate of inflation.

As a result, consumer spending has risen strongly, with consumption in the economy now over £20 billion, from just £11 billion a decade earlier.

As well as the level of wealth, its distribution throughout the economy is also important. The recovery has left the unemployed particularly the long term unemployed behind.

While those in work have benefited both from wage increases and from Budget tax relief, the unemployed have generally received Budgetary increases just ahead of inflation. No comprehensive measure of the distribution of income in Ireland is available, but groups such as the Conference of Religious in Ireland have highlighted the widening gaps between those in work and those depending on social welfare payments. The basic welfare payments are still below the minimum recommended by the Commission on Social Welfare.

There is considerable confusion over whether Government policy is making inroads into unemployment. The live register indicates a much higher level of unemployment than the annual survey of the labour force the gap is around 90,000. But there is no disputing that unemployment here is still higher than in most EU states and that long term unemployment remains a major problem. Large areas of urban Ireland in particular have been by passed by the boom.

For those in work, the picture is brighter. Hit by high interest interest rates during the currency crisis, consumer confidence has been slow to recover and savings have risen much further than spending. But higher income is finally starting to be reflected in spending in areas such as electronics and home improvements. People are also eating out more, and spending more on clothing foreign holidays and luxury cars.

Ireland is slowing becoming a wealthier society, at least for those in work. The 1994 family budget survey has not yet been released but is expected to show a dramatic rise in the numbers of domestic appliances' in Irish households. The latest available survey in 1988 showed that 82 per cent of households had colour televisions compared with 51 per cent in 1980. The 1994 survey will confirm that the vast majority of Irish homes now have a washing machine, while more than eight out of every 10 homes have a telephone.

We also buy relatively more "clothing and footwear than 10 years ago, although spending in this area is still below the European average. In comparison we spend a higher proportion than other countries of our income on alcohol and tobacco, and consumption of alcohol is growing more rapidly than in many other countries.

Another reason for our increased willingness to spend is that the average worker now has fewer calls on his or her salary. Most families are smaller and there are fewer old people to support.

The birth rate has fallen like a stone in recent years. In the late 1970s the average woman could expect to have four children, this has fallen to 1.8 today. In the early 1980s there were 1.25 children per house and this will fall, to 0.75 of a child per house by early next century.

At the same time the dependency ratio number of dependents per member of the working population has fallen from a high of 2.25 dependents per worker in the mid 1980s to 1.75 last year and it is still falling. The European average is still below us, at 1.4 dependents per worker.

Other commentators point to the significant fall in population at the end of the 1980s through emigration. This contributed to rising income per head. In recent years the population level has stabilised as emigration has tailed off.

ONE downside to our new found economic prosperity is that not everyone is sufficiently provided for when they retire. Although money in pension funds has risen dramatically, this will not mean a decent retirement for many Irish workers. Out of a workforce of around 1.23 million, only about half a million are in a pension scheme.

But with a relatively young population, the current priority is to keep job creation at a high level and reduce unemployment. This is by far the most effective way to raise the overall standard of living of the population. As last week's Forfas report put it, we have come a long way and now have a unique opportunity to improve our standard of living and increase employment. It's up to the politicians and policy makers not to waste it.