GEORGE MITCHELL returns to Belfast today to try to achieve a variation of what St Patrick did to the snakes 1,500 years ago: rid Northern Ireland of the "twin demons of violence and intransigence". The former US senator has so far demonstrated the patience of a saint, but whether he is invested with saintly powers is another matter entirely.
No one needed a Northern Ireland political decoder to know where his Washington comments, made during St Patrick's week, were directed. The demon of violence had possessed the republican movement chiefly. Intransigence had to be exorcised from the unionist body politic.
Mr Mitchell will drive up Stormont's mile long avenue this morning, mindful that over the previous year the so called talks were bogged down in issues of procedure and decommissioning. To some degree the participants pulled themselves out of the morass over rules and procedures, but when the talks were adjourned in March, to facilitate the British general election, they were still stuck on the farms question.
Another intractable round of pseudotalks about arms must fill Mr Mitchell with dread. However, he is a doggedly optimistic man. Peace and a political settlement are inevitable for one very simple, but very good, reason, according to Mr Mitchell: because it is the will of the overwhelming majority of the people of Northern Ireland. But when That's the question he admits he can't answer.
As regards a political settlement, that question could be better directed at the Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble. Today he should be returning from South Africa where he and other unionists were in the same game reserve as Sinn Fein but somehow not in their company.
Over the weekend, Mr Trimble will have had some time to finally decide on what political path he will take over the coming days, weeks and months. He faces major decisions: whether to align himself with the "not an inch" pairing of the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Robert McCartney, and possibly even play the Orange card at Drumcree; or whether to take some risks and move to substantive talks while side lining decommissioning.
Almost everybody, apart from the DUP and the UK Unionists, wants Mr Trimble to gamble.
Sinn Fein is a key player in terms of an IRA ceasefire being renewed in genuine and unequivocal fashion. And while the British and Irish governments and President Clinton and nationalist politicians want them in inclusive talks, following a genuine ceasefire, the matter of Northern Ireland finally engaging in "real politics" rests with Mr Trimble. For the moment, the republican movement must make its decisions outside the talks: Mr Trimble must choose his path inside the process.
He realises that, to promote movement, decommissioning must effectively become a fourth strand of the talks. He also knows he will be lacerated by Dr Paisley and Mr McCartney in such an eventuality. Allowing decommissioning to move off the main agenda would also ease the way for Sinn Fein to enter talks after a genuine ceasefire, giving obdurate unionists further ammunition against him.
Mr Trimble knows the options. He can team up with Dr Paisley and Mr McCartney, and enter the unionist laager, thus ensuring that there is no progress. Drumcree could be one way of demonstrating the resolute power of Orangeism and unionism. With Mr Trimble once more to the forefront, Drumcree could again bring Northern Ireland to the edge of the abyss.
And odds are that unionists might again achieve what Mr Seamus Mallon described as a Pyrrhic victory, as they did at the previous Drumcrees. But even such an outcome is not guaranteed: so tar the indications are that the British government and the RUC will make a more determined effort to resist another Drumcreetype insurrection.
THIS time there is no British prime minister dependent on the votes of unionist MPs. Mr Tony Blair has made it plain to Sinn Fein that if it does not get aboard the peace train, it stays off. But, equally, his Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, has made it clear to unionists that a similar fate is in store for them if they try and dictate where and how this train travels.
There are some hopeful signs that the main unionist leader is prepared to be more daring. Mr Trimble and the SDLP leader, Mr John Hume, are engaging in a process aimed at avoiding another Drumcree. Mr Hume was successful last year in resolving the dispute over the Apprentice Boys parade in Derry, while rather cunningly finessing the inflexible types on the loyalist and republican sides who might have preferred a more apocalyptic conclusion to the affair.
Between them, with sufficient will and compromise, Mr Trimble and Mr Hume could also outmanoeuvre the hard men over Drumcree, although it may be more difficult this time. What's problematic is whether the Drumcree genie can be put back in the bottle.
Mr Trimble has been calm, considered and welcoming of pronouncements from Mr Blair. The Prime Minister's Belfast speech, while substantially meeting Sinn Fein's demands, was very strong on the principle of consent. Furthermore, Mr Blair demonstrated his own commitment to the Union. Predictably, Dr Paisley paraphrased the speech as "betrayal and sellout" but Mr Trimble was comfortable with the contents, about which he was briefed beforehand by Downing Street.
Mr Trimble, like Mr Blair, is himself in a stronger electoral position this time. Dr Paisley and Mr McCartney will harass and snipe but he has the votes and the MPs and, better still, he doesn't have to face any bothersome elections in the near future. He's in a position to move forward, if he wants to move forward.
As he enters Stormont, Mr Trimble will likely keep his strategy secret. Today's resumed talks may be focused on opening speeches and declarations and it may be a few days before decisions are necessary.
ODDLY, Sinn Fein could be at Stormont today, staging another token protest over its exclusion, while the DUP is expected to be absent. Dr Paisley views the Forum as taking precedence over the talks and says he won't join the negotiations until after the first Forum gathering on Friday.
All the other parties will be there, although, with possible delayed flights and jetlag, some of those returning from South Africa may be late for the opening of proceedings.
The Tanaiste, Mr Dick Spring, despite his election pressures, is also due at Stormont.
One of the first issues to be discussed is whether the loyalist parties should be allowed to remain in the process. The Alliance Party is set to argue that the nature of the Combined Loyalist Military Command ceasefire is a sham, although it is not seeking the expulsion of the Progressive Unionist Party and the Ulster Democratic Party.
While much will be said about the loyalist ceasefire, the parties, again aside from the DUP and the UK Unionists, are certain to ensure that they are not thrown out. As one UDP politician said: "Why would they want us out when we're the crashtest dummies for the Provos?"
So, from today, inside and outside the Stormont talks, the republican movement and the Ulster Unionist Party must wrestle with the twin demons that have bedevilled Northern Ireland.
