Twisting job figures to suit needs

Hooray for unemployment

Hooray for unemployment. On a moral level (morals, in business, I'm certainly slipping!), I always found it difficult to cheer higher unemployment when I sat at the bond desk but, horrible as it sounds, delight was the message from the US last week as Friday's numbers showed that unemployment had risen from 3.9 per cent (a 30-year low) to 4.1 per cent while hourly earnings were virtually unchanged.

This means that there are more people available for work, resulting in less of a labour squeeze in the United States and less upward pressure on wages. All of which was greeted as welcome news by the bond and equity traders, who now feel that Federal Reserve chairman, Mr Alan Greenspan, might hold back on hiking rates again. Which is probably getting a little bit carried away with events.

However, it does mean that the Fed has finally seen some numbers emerging from the economy indicating a slowdown and might feel less inclined to throw in another 50-basis point hike next time.

In fact, lots of people are rushing to say that the Fed won't do anything at all for some time to come, especially since the commerce department showed that factory orders posted their biggest decline in almost 10 years - down 4.3 per cent.

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For the market, which has been suffering so much in the last couple of months, it's a sign that stocks are cheap again and the interest-rate scenario is a lot more hopeful.

It's always interesting how quickly sentiment can turn around. After the last hike, people were almost universally gloomy about the prospects for both equities and interest rates; now they're extolling the virtues of both lagging old-economy and depressed new-economy stocks.

As far as some are concerned, the economy is in slowdown, the Fed needs to stand back and everything in the garden is about to come up rosy. Any minute now and you'll have some of the more rabid commentators suggesting a reversal of the recent rate rises.

Not that I want to rain on the parade or anything, but sentiment is just as likely to whirl around again and it took the Fed a long time before it actually started its tightening round last year. So it'll take more than one set of numbers to change its stance this time too.

We haven't quite got around to being depressed by a greater number of people in work in Ireland yet where politicians still welcome falling unemployment numbers.

It's interesting that 4.1 per cent of the population out of work in the US is good news, while at home the Government has, as a priority, the task of finding jobs for the 4.6 per cent of the population which is unemployed.

The employment index component of the NCB purchasing managers index rose in May but at a slower rate than April. Nevertheless staff shortages continued to be reported and companies said that they had difficulties in replacing staff who had left. It is, I suppose, all a matter of perspective as with all economic numbers.

I had another brush with perspectives last week when I met a couple of old business acquaintances who were riding high on the current wave of employment euphoria - both have been headhunted over the past year and have increased their net worth considerably by changing jobs.

But the perspective which I saw was a male-female one.

My male friend looked extremely prosperous when we met - the requisite expensive suit, cufflinks and shiny shoes. But a plethora of business lunches and (as he admitted himself) somewhat better living has meant that those suits are a size larger than they would have been a year ago. His golf handicap has come down, he informs me, but every point off the handicap seems to have been matched by a few pounds on around the waist.

It's been a different story with my female friend. She, too, has done well over the past year. But her rise in status has been matched by a corresponding fall in weight. And why? Because she's pushed herself through a gruelling regimen at the gym instead of walking around the golf course. (And don't tell me that you burn off calories walking around the golf course. You do. You just put them all back on again at the nineteenth hole!)

The reason for the gym workouts is that she too has had an increase in business lunches but she's very aware that she wants to look good at management meetings. And looking good means looking slim, not matronly. She feels that slim and attractive will be taken more seriously than generously padded.

I'm not trying to stir up another type of glass ceiling but it's an interesting thought that we're quite happy to see our businessmen on the larger size as a sign of prosperity, but the appropriate sign for the thirty-something woman is (as always) thin.

Which means that they should stay away from London's Serpentine Gallery. I'd intended to do a bit of cultural exploring on my last visit to the British capital, having suddenly found myself with some free time, but the fact that torrential rain prevented anyone with an ounce of sense from stepping outside the underground put paid to that.

The Serpentine Gallery is, apparently, showing an exhibit made up of goods from that old stalwart, Marks & Spencer. The store I love to despair about continues to try and update its clothing with mixed results - although the share price has managed to stabilise and, indeed, edge higher lately. But I still think it's doing well on the food products - I'm prepared to pay more for their food than the more synthetic Tesco variety.

Anyway, the exhibit makes good use of one of M&S's excellent quality foodstuffs - chocolate. According to the publicity, the main attraction in the exhibition (which is sponsored by Bloomberg) is a carpet of extremely chocolatey caramels from the store which the visitors are encouraged to eat!

Sounds like my idea of a real cultural event and a brilliant marketing idea too! Bring the punters in, let them loose among the chocolatey caramels and see them rush to M&S to fill up their shopping bags. Utterly perfect. But not, obviously, for any woman wanting to keep her management position in the City.