So 1997 was a good year. You have £20,000 to punt with preferably in equity funds. Does anyone out there have any suggestions?
Floods of reports appear at this time of year from brokers and fund managers, all wanting to relate their view of what happened last year and what they believe will happen in international and domestic equity and bond markets over the next 12 months.
Crystal ball gazing is far from scientific, but these reports can identify end-of-year trends that are sure to carry through for a few months. They also spot weaknesses and strengths, though few will go out on a limb by warning investors off a market altogether.
Last year may have ended on a whimper with markets barely recovering from the Asian flu that struck in October. But not too surprisingly, commentators agree that the solid growth prospects this year, where the global effects of the fall-out in the Far East have not been fully felt yet, will be western European equities, with those in Britain and top Irish companies ranking very well.
Asset Management Trust is an independent investment company that has produced a Where to in 1998 investment guide that gives short, sharp analysis of last year's performance and a clear declaration of where they will be putting their client's money this year, and why.
The report also includes a very useful performance breakdown for last year of the international equity fund managers who operate in the Irish market global companies like Invesco (whose spectacular China returns are the only shining light from that turbulent market), Fidelity, Gartmore, Hong Kong Shanghai Bank (HSBC), Templeton and Threadneedle.
Direct share investing is risky at the best of times and requires great nerve, patience and a level of knowledge that few ordinary punters have. Buying into an international equity fund, either from an Irish fund manager or a global one is a far wiser bet and £20,000, spread around four or five funds is a good way to break into these markets in a serious way.
According to the Asset Management Trust report, Invesco's North American Growth fund achieved a performance of 55.37 per cent between January and December 1997. The best Japanese Equity Fund manager was Fidelity with 5.45 per cent in a group where the average performance was -7.32 per cent. European Equities achieved an average of 44.21 per cent with Gartmore providing the best performance of 49.44 per cent.
Fidelity turned in the best performance for British Equities with a 37.49 per cent return (the group average was 35.15 per cent).
The troubled Hong Kong/Chinese Equity market fund group barely achieved a positive return by the end of 1997 (0.19 per cent), but Invesco's high-risk PS Greater China Opportunities fund dominated the ranking with a 19.51 per cent return.
Fidelity's Latin America Equity fund led that group with a 53.70 per cent return (average 47.26 per cent), while Gartmore topped the tables of the Emerging Markets Fund, with its exposure to many far eastern markets, with a return of 14.89 per cent (average 6.56 per cent.)
For 1998, this is what Asset Management Trust says about the following locations:
The United States: "We believe the current valuation and prospective growth rates of many smaller companies offer more attractive investment opportunities than their larger counterparts. . .and are less likely to be impacted by weakness in Asia."
Japan: "We remain cautious due to worries over the financial system and a deteriorating economic outlook. Corporate earnings are likely to disappoint rather than surprise."
Britain: "The UK is relatively well-positioned with a valuation below that of the equity markets in the US and continental Europe. . .it faces a rise in interest rates in the near term and sterling is widely expected to weaken during 1998."
Continental Europe: "Remains the acknowledged safe haven from the problems in Asia and has been our favoured region for some time."
Hong Kong/China: "Although economic forecasts for Asia have been revised significantly `downwards', the China story continues to offer interesting opportunities. . ."
A copy of the investment guide is available by contacting Asset Management Trust at (01) 660 4077.