It is time the Celtic Tiger got a bullet in the head. I mean, of course, the phrase "Celtic Tiger". It would be bad enough if the phrase were just a cliche. It would be bad enough if it were just another soundbite effortlessly falling off the lips of politicians, journalists, economists and pundits. But the reason why the Celtic Tiger must be slain, now, is that it has bred sloppy thinking, leading to a false sense of success and flawed criticism.
As a metaphor, it was intended by its inventor, Mr Kevin Gardiner of Morgan Stanley in London, to draw attention to the similarity of the Irish rate of GDP growth with those of south-east Asian countries in the early 1990s. That was all. It takes no economist to realise that economic, political and cultural conditions in the likes of Thailand and Indonesia were, and are, entirely different to those in Ireland.
The significance of the southeast Asian growth rates was seen then and now to be of global importance, transforming economic relations in the Asia-Pacific region principally and having clear consequences for Europe and America. Hundreds of millions of people live in the south-east Asian economies, excluding China.
The Republic is an economy of just 3,500,000. Whether we sink, swim or just splutter along in the turbulent international economic waters means little to rest of the world. Our economy is not a tiger, the head of the food chain, whose health or otherwise affects similar and lesser creatures. The metaphor collapses here.
But was it not more to do with how our
economy boomed while the rest of Europe stalled? Are we not a model of something, Europe's shining light, in the words of the Economist? Yes, of course, we are a little beacon, but as a model for Germany, Britain, Russia or the US we are not very appropriate. Ireland is small, dominated by a neighbour, with a minnow of a currency and substantially influenced by external trade, the sterling exchange rate, foreign direct investment, EU supports and the emigration-cum-return safety valve. We might have some lessons for similar economies, but we're no king of the jungle.
One dollop of consequent sloppy thinking is the stuff we hear about success. We have a booming economy. It's as if, that's it we've made it. No return to high emigration, high unemployment, high debt, high tax, high inflation, or higher interest rates.
Well, every one of those conditions could return in the coming years, euro or no euro. It is not long since we were in the doldrums . It may not be long before we look back on these four years or five years as our one-off 20th century boom.
I know this contradicts news this week of no Government borrowing this year, record stock market levels and the Central Bank's prediction of sustained short-term growth.
But it could all unwind easily, and we don't need a south-east Asia meltdown for it to happen. Inflation has a way of snowballing, especially when the currency is down and it's a sellers market in labour, as now. The success of the economy is only partial, as has been pointed out. Geographically, some areas are doing much better. In some sectors there is zero unemployment, in some locations, unemployment is still an appalling 40 per cent or more.
There are even shortages in some trades - jobs not being filled or unusually high levels of overtime. The worship of the Celtic Tiger has drawn critics, but even the critics have been let indulge some strange notions. It is said that the Celtic Tiger is not feeding its cubs equally; with the implication that people are deliberately being starved. The economy is not a lactating mammal. What is measured as growth, those activities that create wealth, will not happen if they have to be distributed evenly from the outset. That is a fact of life. We now have the economic activity of more than 1.2 million people. We have generated unusually large income and wealth. The public question is, what to do in those circumstances in the pursuit of balanced social goals of security, prosperity, health, education and welfare. Not how to roar and revel in nouveau wealth. Nor how to get a ride on a tiger. So, anyone for hunting?
Oliver O'Connor is an investment funds specialist
