'Tiger' leaves young Irish cool, trendy and uncertain

When the graduating class of 1997 was first let loose into the world of work, life was good

When the graduating class of 1997 was first let loose into the world of work, life was good. Unemployment had recently fallen to single figures for the first time since records began and didn't look like rising again for a while.

GDP had increased by 25 per cent in the past two years and was more than £14,000 (€17,766) per capita. The Republic had just featured on the cover of the Economist, with a headline proclaiming it as "Europe's shining light".

To be Irish and young was cool, trendy and, for the first time in generations, lucrative, even for those who stayed at home.

Over the next four years, that same class - among the most educated the Republic had ever seen - would watch as jobless figures fell from 9.9 per cent in June 1997 to 3.6 per cent at the end of 2000. The rest of the world wondered how to emulate the "tiger" model.

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Could times get any better? Would they ever be bad again?

Fast-forward to this month. On November 1st, around 1,200 of the Republic's 1.7 million employees heard their jobs were to be eliminated. This dramatic picture followed the 4,000 or so who got the same news in October and the 2,300 in August.

It is a different situation from the summer of 1997. While the cumulative job losses registered this year may take a while to work their way into unemployment figures, there was a net rise of 5,200 in the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for October and some economists are expecting the rate to rise 4 per cent next year. For a generation who expected their pay packet to rise forever, worries are doubtless emerging, but how serious are they? Perhaps the younger generation will be stronger than expected.

In April 2001, the number of males aged between 20 and 34 on the live register rose slightly for the first time in at least three years, as did the number of people from all age groups who had been out of work for less than one year.

While the figures represent a very early, vague snapshot of the wider economic or social picture, they lend credence to the theory that a new kind of unemployed person could be emerging: the young person who may lose his job but won't take long before finding a new one.

Mr Brendan Holmes graduated in 1992 and says he is "old enough to remember when it was tough enough to find a job".

Still, he says, being laid off by his technology firm employer in March this year with no notice came as a shock. Mr Holmes describes being called into his superior's office for the news just before lunch on the day. When he returned to his desk, his phone was disconnected and his computer no longer recognised his log-on. The loss sank in quickly enough when his forthcoming wedding and just-bought home in Celbridge, Co Kildare was taken into consideration.

"To be honest, it felt pretty bad," he says. "Just that Christmas, I'd been called into a room and given the best part of 2,000 share options with a vesting period of four years. . . It's like you're being told that you're a great guy."

Mr Holmes spent three months looking for a new job, again as a developer.

"It took a month to build up my confidence enough to present myself to other companies," he says. "Having hibernated for a couple of weeks, I realised that I was laid off because of a business decision rather than because of my abilities to do the job."

Mr Holmes reckons that it could soon become normal for people of his age to be made redundant twice or three times in the course of a career in software development. He believes that in times such as these, the idea of being stigmatised due to job loss becomes old-fashioned, a notion which is supported by Mr Austin Hughes, chief economist with Irish Intercontinental Bank.

Mr Hughes, who predicts an unemployment rate of 4.5 per cent for next year, suggests newer employees have no expectation of permanence and so may be better equipped to deal with redundancy.

"Job loss hasn't been a real experience for them but job change has been," he says.

He also points out that job loss in an economy where unemployment hovers around 4 per cent is unlikely to be as traumatic as it was for the parents of today's younger workforce. Nonetheless, says Mr Hughes, the current economic upheaval will be the "great test" of the new model.

"Provided that what we're seeing now is a shock that doesn't turn into a trend that stays for 10 years, it may actually strengthen people's capacity to work," he says. "But it's still a very early stage. The proof of the pudding will be two years out."

One factor suggesting that today's young redundants are resilient is their seeming lack of interest in becoming militant about their loss. The Irish National Organisation of the Unemployed (INOU), a port of call for unemployment activists, reports no rise in its numbers in recent months.

When the 240 or so workers in internet banking operation first-e lost their jobs in September, their first reaction was to set up a website advertising their services - no time for weeping here.

"It has to be different for a generation growing up with an expectation of working," says Mr Tony Monks, INOU general secretary. "In the past, the initial shock of unemployment was so great that it totally preoccupied people, and only with the emergence of more unemployment did it turn into anger. Today, there's still some evidence that there's quite a strong demand for very skilled people."

IDA chief executive Mr Sean Dorgan described as "temporary" the conditions leading to current job losses. "This will correct in a year or so." As Christmas approaches, however, the bad news is mounting. Home buying - the staple of every booming economy dinner party conversation - appears to be easing, according to the latest Central Bank statistics on mortgage lending.

Estate agents are also reporting a fall-off in the market for second-hand homes, with some having seen a price decrease of 4 per cent in the third quarter. The NCB Purchasing Managers Index, a key indicator on the Republic's manufacturing sector, fell for the third consecutive month in October and has hit its lowest point since 1998.

As the Tβnaiste, Ms Harney, said last week: "Ireland is not immune from what's happening in the world economy. There will unfortunately be more bad news."

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey is an Assistant Business Editor at The Irish Times