The gold watch brigade are not alone in their pension paranoia

Anybody holding a pension could be forgiven for feeling a bit paranoid these days, as each new week brings yet more bad news …

Anybody holding a pension could be forgiven for feeling a bit paranoid these days, as each new week brings yet more bad news for their precious nest egg.

The numbers require depressingly little qualification. Over the course of last year, the average managed pension fund in the Republic lost almost 19 per cent of its value. Cumulatively, that translated into a decline of about €10 billion.

And just when it looked like the market was poised on the edge of a rip-roaring turnaround, the first month of this year has offered little reason for pensioner optimism. The latest estimates suggest that the average managed pension fund has declined by about 5 per cent since New Year's day.

Equity funds are likely to have fallen further.

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When inflation is taken into account, most Irish funds have seen no growth for the past five years. The people most likely to be losing sleep over the whole business are those who are planning to retire over the next couple of years.

The options open to these individuals will depend on factors such as their employment status, their attitude to risk and their relative wealth.

Mr Tom Murphy, head of Mercer Investment Consulting, advises investors to look principally at where they expect to put their assets when their pension fund has run its course.

Employees holding occupational pensions are most tied in this respect since they are obligated to buy an annuity upon retirement. Mr Murphy says that since the price of these products is based on bond yields, it probably makes sense for imminent retirees to move the bulk of their pension assets into bonds in advance of finishing work.

Even prospective pensioners who have seen their funds ravaged over the past three years will do well to cut their losses and consider this action, according to Mr Murphy.

"If you're 64 years of age, the last thing you want to do is have a punt on the equity markets," he says, pointing out that individuals who ignored similar advice this time last year will now be nursing even heavier wounds.

Self-employed people and most company directors are in a slightly different position, as they are more likely to invest in an Approved Retirement Fund (ARF) when their pension matures. While the composition of these funds will vary, most will include some equity exposure, thus prolonging an investor's exposure to the stock market and offering them a greater chance of riding a market upswing should it arrive.

Again, however, there are no guarantees, with the experts hesitant to steer retirees into massive equity holdings unless they have guaranteed sources of additional income such as rent from investment properties.

Despite having the monopoly on immediate concerns, the gold watch brigade are not alone in their worries. At the opposite end of the pensions spectrum, anxieties are also likely to be building, as those reaching the point of establishing their pension take fright at the endless market gloom.

While understandably cautious about offering advice, Mr Neil Herlihy, senior consultant with Watson Wyatt LLP, suggests that only those who are "very brave" and "confident" of hitting the bottom of the market at some future point have a good reason for delaying the start of their pension now. He admits, however, that this is a hard point to call, with many commentators judging that the depths had been touched a year ago.

In terms of taking chances however, Mr Herlihy says that a 30-something worker earning about €50,000 is in a position to contribute no more than €7,500 to their pension each year, an amount that will give them relatively low market exposure.

"If I still had a reasonable length of time to retirement, I wouldn't give up on equities," he says.

Mr Stephen Lalor, consultant with Coyle Hamilton, agrees that while he would "love to be coming to the market fresh" at the moment, there are no guarantees of future performance. "At some stage over the next 25 or 30 years, this is going to happen again. Your time will come," he says, acknowledging that pensions are long-term products for exactly this reason.

"If you do get in, I'd suggest that you grit your teeth and stay in it for the long haul," he says.

Similar advice applies to those at mid-career, the experts agree, and all pensioners should be aware of the potential ups and downs of the market, regardless of their age or stage.

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey is an Assistant Business Editor at The Irish Times