Never mind US recession fears, reports of redundancies or manufacturing's apparent slide into the abyss. The central bank may be getting the economic slowdown it wants - or so it seems to be saying.

Six members of the Federal Reserve's policy-making open market committee (FOMC), in the weeks leading up to their January 30-31 meeting, have publicly dismissed recession jitters.

Mr William Poole, president of the St Louis Federal Reserve, last week said recession was "in the realm of possibility, but it is not a best guess at this time". On January 13, Mr Roger Ferguson, vice-chairman of the Fed's board of governors, acknowledged the severity of the slowdown and uncertainty over the outlook but he suggested it might be mere "bumps in the road" to more sustainable growth and said the slide in long-term interest rates would encourage "a pick-up in activity" later this year.

Mr Anthony Santomero, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said the previous week that he was "still seeing figures that are positive in terms of growth rates".

Ms Cathy Minehan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said "moderate growth for the coming year as a whole is the most likely outcome", although she acknowledged that risks of a downturn were "more evident".

Prior to this, Mr Jack Guynn, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said the slowdown was likely to be "a mostly healthy thing" that would clear the economy of "serious imbalances that might otherwise have begun to accumulate". Hours later, Mr Robert McTeer, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who served on the FOMC last year, said the Fed was very alert to recession signs, but expressed doubt that the economy had shrunk. And Mr Michael Moskow, Chicago Fed president, said late last month that the economy was not heading into recession and that job growth was still strong enough.

Last week, the Fed's latest survey of regional economic conditions, the "beige book" - often more useful for revealing what the Fed thinks - reported economic growth merely slowed in late December, only easing continued labour shortages "somewhat". Workers who had been dismissed were expected to be "reabsorbed due to strong pent-up demand" from other companies. Upward wage pressures were similar or slightly less than in the previous survey.

Indeed, an earlier drop in Fed funds futures prices suggested many investors had begun to doubt the hard-landing scenario and to scale back expectations for big rate reductions this year.

After losing ground against the euro for weeks on speculation of a narrowing interest rate gap between the US and euro area, the US dollar stabilised and reversed course.

Then came last week's surprisingly bleak monthly survey from the Philadelphia Fed, which showed a virtual collapse in manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region to levels not seen since the last recession. The report revived fears of a hard landing and bets on a big rate cut, ending the dollar's rebound and highlighting uncertainty over the outlook.