Retail sales rise of 2.8% marks turnaround - CSO

Retail sales picked up sharply in November, according to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

Retail sales picked up sharply in November, according to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The figures also show that pub sales continued to show tentative signs of recovery towards the end of the year.

The CSO said that the volume of retail sales overall rose by 2.8 per cent between October and November.

The monthly rise marked a turnaround after two months of declining volumes, and left retail sales in a strong position as the year drew to a close.

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Annual comparisons also point to a solid performance for the retail sector, with sales up 4.2 per cent in November when compared to the same month of the previous year.

Economists were encouraged by the positive trend, which they believe was maintained into the Christmas selling season in December.

The figures show that bar sales climbed by 2.3 per cent in both value and volume terms between September and November.

Economists at Davy Stockbrokers said this trend made the claim by the Vintners' Federation of Ireland that sales were down 25 per cent since the smoking ban was instituted "totally misleading".

The claim misses the point that bar sales experience a "huge seasonal swing" upwards at Christmas each year, they say.

Bar sales continued to be down on 2003 however, with an analysis of the figures on a three-month moving average annual basis, suggesting that they had fallen by 5.1 per cent.

Goodbody Stockbrokers economist Mr Philip O'Sullivan said the prospects for a sustained recovery in bar sales are limited by the higher prices that have crept into the sector over the past few years.

Mr O'Sullivan believes the November figures for retail sales as a whole suggest that the sharp decline in consumer confidence recorded for the month was overdone.

A detailed breakdown of sales between August and October points to particular buoyancy in hardware, paints and glass, and clothing.

Sales of furniture and lighting were also firm, suggesting that consumers are happy to spend money on big-ticket items related to housing.

Bloxham Stockbrokers economist Mr Alan McQuaid said he now expects overall retail sales to post a 3 per cent volume increase for 2004.

He described this as a "subdued" outcome, far from the heady days of the economic boom.

Mr McQuaid predicts that spending will also be somewhat sluggish in 2005, as consumers hold off on large outlays until their Special Savings Incentive Accounts (SSIAs) begin to mature in 2006.

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey

Úna McCaffrey is an Assistant Business Editor at The Irish Times