The aviation regulator Bill Prasifka is expected to allow an increase in airport charges when he unveils his draft decision concerning Dublin airport next week.
Because of the uncertainty remaining over new terminal capacity, the regulator will outline more than one scenario for the future of the airport.
Consequently, several potential charging regimes will be discussed.
However, it is expected that most of these will incorporate an increase in the statutory cap on charges, which currently stands at €4.90 per passenger.
Any increase in the cap on charges is likely to anger the airlines, particularly Ryanair. However, the Dublin Airport Authority (DAA) has strongly lobbied for a major increase in charges.
At a presentation a few weeks ago, the new DAA chief executive, Declan Collier, said that Mr Prasifka's decision would "shape the passenger experience at Dublin airport for the next 20 years".
The job of formulating a new charging regime has been complicated by the issue of new terminal capacity. While the Government has given the go-ahead for a terminal, it is not clear where it will be situated or how much it will cost. The ultimate operator of the facility is also not known at this point.
Consequently, Mr Prasifka has been forced to allow for several different scenarios. However, with major infrastructural investment needed, the charges are unlikely to fall back.
The DAA has submitted an ambitious 10-year capital expenditure plan to Mr Prasifka involving spending of more than €1 billion. Mr Prasifka will give details of this plan, but has yet to make a decision on whether he will permit this level of spending.
A few months ago, Mr Prasifka hired British consultants Booz Allen to conduct an audit of efficiency levels at Dublin airport and this will also feed the decision-making process.
It is understood this report is critical of some activities carried out by the DAA, but is broadly complimentary.
The DAA needs a significant rise in airport charges so that it can take on the debts associated with building a new terminal.
Even conservative estimates put the cost of a terminal, including ancillaries, at €250 million.
The DAA already has almost €400 million of net debt on its balance sheet. In order to keep its gearing levels within a certain range and meet its interest payments, the authority believes it needs a significantly higher charging regime in the future.
Mr Prasifka said yesterday that his announcement on Tuesday would very much be a "draft determination", with capital expenditure plans, traffic forecasts, operational costs and commercial revenue all taken into account.
But he said he would be widely consulting with airlines and the DAA.
