RUAIRI Quinn may present next Wednesday's Budget as one designed to help the less well off, reward enterprise and increase employment. But no one will be in any doubt that the primary goal will be to win the General Election.
There will be something for everybody. Farmers, business and the unemployed will all be beneficiaries, as the political parties seek to appease their main supporters in the run up to the election.
In contrast to the previous two Budgets, next week's should make some real difference to middle class taxpayers. The thousands of middle class voters who switched to Labour at the last general election are seen to be in imminent danger of deserting their newfound allegiance.
At this stage most of the Budget's main features have been agreed, although there is still some last minute tidying up on details such as excise duties and some welfare increases.
The income tax package will have something for everybody, but will be designed to appeal particularly to the middle income group. The overall cost of the income tax package is likely to be around £290 million in 1997 or £400 million for the year from April.
According to Riada Stockbrokers that will provide a 1.5 per cent increase in to take home pay - a significant fiscal boost to an already expanding economy. Economic orthodoxy might dictate a more cautious package in such a strong economy. But politically the Government faces an electorate which feels it has been short changed in recent Budgets. Also, the new Partnership 2000 agreement promises substantial cuts.
Much of the gains will be directed at the low to middle income PAYE sector, though all taxpayers will benefit. The key headline from the Budget is expected to be a 1 percentage point cut in the basic tax rate from 27 to 26 per cent - this will save the average household around £100 a year. This measure will cost the exchequer £93 million in a full year.
There will also be a 1 point cut in employees' PRSI from 5.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent - resulting in savings of up to £200 for middle income earners, at a cost to the exchequer of £78 million. The PRSI reduction is a key element of the Budget package, as it will provide substantial gains to a targeted group of average income earners.
Other gains for taxpayers should include an increase in personal allowances, a £200 increase would be worth £52 for a single person while a widening of the bands by £500 would add £21. Overall therefore a typical middle income taxpayer could benefit by around £400.
On the other side, the mortgage tax relief reductions commenced by Bertie Ahern when he was Minister for Finance continues to take effect and will further reduce this tax relief for many taxpayers.
This year the benefit will only be worth a maximum of £1,026, a £100 reduction for a single person.
A reduction in the higher 48 per cent income tax rate is not expected. That idea was floated by Fine Gael's tax committee at an early stage. Such a reduction would not help achieve the Government's stated objective to bring 75 per cent of all taxpayers into the basic rate net. Last year 62.5 per cent of all taxpayers paid only at the basic rate. With the expected increases in general exemption limits the Government is hoping that even more will be removed from the tax wedge and from paying tax at the higher rate.
Fine Gael priorities also included looking after the farmers, particularly after that community's disastrous year. From the BSE crisis to green pound revaluations the farmers have seen a significant decline in their income. They will be helped with a £20 to £30 million package including the extension of stamp duty reliefs and an incentive scheme for young farmers, increased capital allowances and a rise in VAT relief.
The business community has not been forgotten either. While the cuts in employees' PRSI means there is no room for a headline cut in employers' contributions, the level at which the lower 8.5 per cent rate applies will be raised to £13,500 from £13,000.
In addition, Mr Quinn is planning cuts to corporation tax. The standard rate is expected to be cut from 38 per cent to 36 per cent and a pro rata cut for the low rate of 30 per cent is also on the cards.
Off course much of the Budget's largesse will go towards social security increases - around £115 million in 1997. This will be used to increase children's allowances by £1 for the first and second children and £6 for the third child and above.
The Budget will also contain specific measures to try to make it more financially attractive for the unemployed to go back to work. The Government has already made some welcome moves in this area in an attempt to make the transition from unemployment to work easier and more financially attractive. Last year's Budget extended the family income supplement, which tops up the income of lower paid workers, extended the child dependant allowance paid to the unemployed to the first 13 weeks of work and extended the back to work allowance scheme, which allows some unemployed people to retain benefit payments for a period after returning to work.
This year further measures will include an extension of the rent and mortgage supplement for people returning to work for a year. This would cost £3 million in 1997.
At the same time there will be increases in eligibility for the family income supplement. The theory is that the supplement should be based on after tax income but this would prove too expensive. The likely compromise will be a system based on income before the payment of PRSI.
Maastricht, of course, looms large in the pre Budget considerations. The imperative of qualifying for the single currency means that borrowing must be kept low. And it also means that increases in excise duties will be limited. A key consideration for Mr Quinn is that increasing excises adds to the rate of inflation, which must be kept low this year to meet the Maastricht rules.
For the second year in a row there will be no increase in alcohol duty. Petrol prices are set to increase but by between 1p and 2p a litre, this will keep them well below the price in Northern Ireland. There were also worries about the impact on farming incomes and on rural area in general of a larger increase. While the cost of cigarettes will increase it will be by less than the 10p a package announced last year.
But the Government will hope that the small increase in excises will be forgotten as the public count the gains. Both the welfare increases and tax cuts will benefit the public pocket from April. The only question remaining to be answered is: When will the election be called?