Outlook for world's leading economies weakens further

THE OUTLOOK for the world’s major industrialised and emerging economies weakened further in December and non-OECD countries are…

THE OUTLOOK for the world’s major industrialised and emerging economies weakened further in December and non-OECD countries are now also facing a strong slowdown, data from the Paris-based organisation showed yesterday.

The composite leading indicators in most OECD countries have fallen to levels that were last seen during the oil shocks of the 1970s.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s leading indicator for the Group of Seven advanced industrial nations fell to 92.4 from 93.7 in November, giving an 8.6 point year-on-year drop. The indicator aims to signal when the direction of the economy is changing, with any level below 100 indicating contraction.

The data “continue to point to a weakening outlook,” the Paris-based organisation said.

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Albert Edwards, a London-based global strategist for Société Générale, called them “catastrophically weak”.

“OECD composite leading indicators for December 2008 continue to point to a weakening outlook for all the major seven economies. The indicators in most OECD countries have fallen to levels that were last seen during the oil shocks of the 1970s,” the OECD said in a statement.

“The outlook has significantly deteriorated in the major non-OECD member economies who are now also facing strong slowdowns,” it said.

The sharpest year-on-year fall among the G7 economies was in Germany with a drop of 11.8 points to 90.9 in December, down from 92.5 in November.

Japan’s indicator fell to 92.2 in December from 93.7 the previous month and was down 7.3 points year-on-year.

Among the so-called Bric countries, Russia posted the sharpest year-on-year drop with an indicator at 86.7, down 17.7 points from December 2007.

Outside of the OECD’s area, China’s gauge fell 14 points over the year and India’s dropped 7.5 points, the OECD said.

In all the G7 and major emerging economies listed, except Brazil, the growth cycle outlook was described as a “strong slowdown”.

Brazil’s was listed as a “slowdown”. – (Reuters)