The fall in numbers heading to South Africa is not as large as first feared, writes BILL CORCORANin Cape Town

SOUTH AFRICA’S tourist industry was given reason to be hopeful recently, with the latest research showing a less severe than expected fall in World Cup visitor numbers than was forecast earlier this year.

Around 373,000 visitors are expected to arrive on South African shores for the festival of football, compared to the 483,000 that was predicted in 2008 by research company Grant Thornton Strategic Solutions.

Although down on the 2008 estimate, it is much better than the 150,000 to 300,000 visitors the local tourism industry warned might be the eventual overseas visitor turnout for the month-long event due to the impact of the global recession.

Concern among organisers over the impact half-empty stadiums would have on the matches as a television spectacle was so high that Fifa’s local organising committee this year made available 500,000 tickets that had been earmarked for foreign fans to South Africans, and pleaded with them to come to games.

“This final ticket phase is very important,” said Fifa secretary general Jerome Valcke at a press conference in Soweto. “We will not want to give that picture of empty seats to the world; all will need to be done in these last days.”

However, of the 373,000 visitors now expected, only 230,000 have already bought match tickets. Around 105,000 travellers, predominately from the African continent, will likely watch the games on big screens at urban parks around the country, or somehow purchase tickets once they have arrived.

The remaining 38,000 international visitors are composed of competitors, sponsors, Fifa officials, media and VIPs.

Despite the reduced numbers from abroad, tourists are still expected to inject €1.3 billion into the local economy over the event, accounting for 0.5 per cent of South Africa’s gross domestic product this year.

In total, the World Cup will have a gross economic impact of €9.3 billion on the country, with 62 per cent of that generated in the run-up to 2010 from indirect spending and infrastructure built, and 38 per cent this year.

Gillian Saunders, principal of Grant Thornton Strategic Solutions, said that after revising their figures after the worldwide recession and major ticket sales phases, “some of the numbers are encouraging”.

“Indications are that overseas tourists will stay an average of 18 days, compared to the 14 days used in the original projections. Average overseas tourist spend per trip is also forecast to be up, at 30,200 South African rand [around €3,000] compared to the 22,000 rand used before.

“The projected €1.3 billion spend during the tournament is also significant when you consider that one event will effectively be responsible for over one-quarter of South Africa’s economic growth this year – projected to be between 2 and 2.5 per cent,” she said.

Grant Thornton has carried out several economic impact studies on how the World Cup will affect South Africa over the past five years, and the latest is based on information from Fifa, ticket sales, SA Tourism and other sources.

The research suggests visitors are expected to attend an average of five matches each, up from the 3.4 matches previously.

“Going to more matches means visitors are likely to stay in the country for a longer period, and therefore while daily spends remain similar, total trip spend increases. Anecdotally, we are hearing people feel that because they are coming so far they want to make the most of the experience,” said Saunders.

Interestingly, only 11,300 people from elsewhere in Africa have bought tickets for the tournament, accounting for just 2 per cent of all ticket sales. This represents a huge collapse from the projected sales figure in that market segment, which stood at 48,145 two years ago.

Complicated online ticket sales and high prices seem to have put many Africans off attending games, although thousands of non-ticket holders will visit South Africa during the tournament.

“It must be understood that some 105,000 of the 373,000 visitors to South Africa over this period are expected to be non-ticket holders; 85,000 of whom would come from Africa for a short visit,” said Saunders.

South African football fans appear to have heeded the call to ensure games are well attended, and are expected to buy 60 per cent of the 3.04 million tickets available for the tournament.

Saunders said this meant “the stadiums will be full, and it will be a great event; the profiling of South Africa and future spin-offs have always been the real benefit of hosting an event of this magnitude”.

Neighbouring countries have also been hoping to take advantage of the World Cup, whether from overseas visitors looking to experience the region or from South Africans seeking some respite from tourists.

Despite its turbulent political situation, Zimbabwe has been at the forefront of the regional drive to tap into the influx of wealthy tourists. Last month Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe reiterated his hope that the country’s tourism attractions, which include Victoria Falls, would draw crowds.

Officials from the troubled southern African country say they expect to host some 100,000, mostly South African tourists, during the event.