The International Monetary Fund's review of the Irish economy is far from being a ringing endorsement of the Government and its policies.
Its recommendation that Mr McCreevy adopt a "neutral stance" when he frames his 2002 budget does not mean that his much criticised stimulatory stance in 2001 has been vindicated.
The IMF advice is given in the context of a genie that cannot be put back in a bottle. There is very little that Mr McCreevy can do in December that can unwind the stimulatory impact of the last Budget.
It is more important that he does nothing this time to make matters worse or, as the IMF puts it, "given the difficulties in running counter-cylical policy (beyond the operation of the automatic stablisers) it would be best to aim for a neutral stance in these years".
They qualify their position by adding that their view only pertains when the risks of serious reheating or recession are not significant. That this scenario applies at the moment is, in the IMF's view, more down to luck than goodmanagement of the economy.
The downturn in the US economy would appear to have arrived just in time.
"Given the concerns about overheating risks last year, the present slowdown was largely welcomed," they point out elsewhere in the report.
Their advice to Mr McCreevy this year is not to push his luck and make sure that any stimulatory measures that he may be contemplating, including further tax cuts and increased health spending, are counterbalanced by dampening measures elsewhere.
In framing its report the IMF team tried to answer two questions.
The first was what the Government should do to ensure a smooth transition from average growth rates of 9.5 per cent to a more sustainable level.
The second question was what institutional and structural reforms should be undertaken - particularly in the area of wages policy - to ensure that growth is sustained once it reaches this lower level.
There is no straightforward answer to the first question. The report does make a number of points in this regard, apart from recommending that no more fuel be added to the fire in the coming Budget.
The terms of the current national wage agreement should not be breached, particularly in the area of public sector pay, it advises.
They also warn that if the current public sector benchmarking exercise - on which the Government has staked the future of the agreement - results in large increases in public sector pay, then they must be offset elsewhere.
The fund's report puts forward a more definitive answer to the second question.
"To sustain high growth over the medium term, the authorities must begin now to address challenges with regard to wage determination, increasing competition and strengthening the medium term basis of fiscal policy," it says.
It does not go into too many specifics but warns that labour markets must reflect the new reality as the economy slows.
This will happen in the private sector through market forces but there is a danger that it will not happen quickly enough in the public sector as no similar mechanism operates.
The summary text of the IMF review can be accessed from the Irish Times website at www.Ireland.com.
