Market Report - Dublin

By now anybody investing in international stock markets must be becoming befuddled by the number of factors weighing on the markets…

By now anybody investing in international stock markets must be becoming befuddled by the number of factors weighing on the markets, with investors having to get used to a whole new lexicon they could have comfortably ignored until the past week or two.

Ask most people a week ago what the Bovespa was and they would probably said it was some form of Mediterranean fish dish. And the Merval? Sounds like some new motor car marque.

But for those who still don't know what these terms are, they are the Sao Paolo and Buenos Aires stock indices and they played a full part in the Wall Street roller-coaster ride that saw markets rise sharply in the first half of the week before losing virtually all those gains as the future of President Clinton weighed on the markets.

As the Russian crisis recedes with the likelihood that Mr Primakov will be approved as prime minister, another factor comes into play. But the Far East is still a major factor with Japan in deepest recession, a situation that potentially has major implications for the American economy.

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Wall Street might have recovered some ground in advance of the publication of the Starr report on President Clinton, but the extent of the volatility has taken observers by surprise.

The carnage piling up on the world's financial markets bears little resemblance to the stock market crash of more than 10 years ago. This time the market swings are a lot more severe. Analysts say that volatility is a reflection of two things - more uncertainty than ever before, and more danger.

The fallout across the world's emerging markets has been even more severe. Over the past month the Russian market has dropped by around 70 per cent, while Venezuela and Hungary have seen losses of 39 and 38 per cent respectively.

The turmoil has many roots, not least the simple fact that much of the developing and industrialised world is either in or near recession. In some cases, such as Japan, there is outright price deflation in certain goods and services.

But international investors are being whipsawed. One day it's sell, sell, sell" as economic gloom deepens and earnings forecasts are slashed. The next day it's "buy" as analysts start talking about co-ordinated interest rate cuts by the Group of Seven.

Against that background the only advice to the small investor is "steer clear".