Investors move back to basics as equity markets lose their sheen

Times of international turmoil tend to cause international financial jitters, a trend that September's US terrorist attacks followed…

Times of international turmoil tend to cause international financial jitters, a trend that September's US terrorist attacks followed almost immediately.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst week in almost 70 years just after the World Trade Centre crumbled, as nervous investors sought to shield their money from a volatile equity environment. Although that initial nervousness has since abated, investors, particularly individual stakeholders, have retained a sense of vulnerability. The notion of "safe havens" has entered the foreground, just as it has done during almost every time of international conflict in history.

And, since Irish investors play the world markets just like other investors, the picture is no different at home. At the extreme, commentators agree that one of the safest investments is gold. From the Pharaohs to the Nazis, secreting a few gold bars under the bed has never been a bad idea, in part because of the metal's durability and relative scarcity. The metal has greater appeal, however - it's unlikely to be devalued overnight to the same extent as a currency (think of the rouble in 1998) and will not go up in flames like a mattress stuffed with bank notes.

It also tends to be compact and portable: all factors that balance against its limited upside potential.

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After September 11th, the World Gold Council reported a surge of interest in gold investment, which saw the metal's price rise. The practical effect of investors seeking to find a safe haven in times of uncertainty. The only problem with this strategy is that it's not exactly accessible for the masses. Gold exchanges are not located on every street corner and investing in a necklace from the jewellery shop will not have quite the same effect.

One Dublin-based senior investment manager admitted to Family Money this week that he wouldn't have any idea where to start looking for gold, never mind buying into it. In any case, he said, gold only truly becomes a good bet in times where Armageddon is on the horizon, not a vista that even the most pessimistic are foreseeing now.

Presuming that the time has not yet come for gold bullion, or that it simply isn't an option for the average man, the next safest investment is probably cash, despite the fear of burning mattresses. Given that currency speculation is unlikely to provide the security required by many at the moment, the plain-old deposit account may be experiencing a renaissance.

"For most people, the more exotic markets like gold, paintings or jewellery present as much of an uncertainty as the stock markets," says Mr Michael Keane, head of savings and investments with EBS. Mr Keane says that if there has been a flight out of equities in recent months, the money freed is likely to have stayed free. In other words, investors are shoring up cash deposits rather than converting them into other assets.

This year, the liquid savings market doubled in the first six months, compared to the same period last year, says Mr Keane. He attributes this to a general cutback in spending, coupled with less attractive investment returns from property.

"For EBS, the cash savings business has grown dramatically this year as people go back into traditional savings," he says. "There's just more uncertainty.

"One aspect of it is that the traditional home for Irish people's savings has been in property investment. With the Bacon Report and restrictions on mortgage interest relief, that market has collapsed as well. As a result, the return on cash deposits is about equal to or even more than you'd get out of the current property market."

The most obvious alternative to cash, according to Mr Keane, is bonds - the instruments that fell dramatically out of favour amid the wild stock market gains of just a few short years ago. While bond returns will not promise to reach the gains achievable through investment in the right stocks and shares, they will usually come with a guarantee of up to 100 per cent of the initial investment. "With-profit" bonds use past high performance to balance against times of poor performance, a policy described as "smoothing".

This usually entails an investment split between equities and fixed-interest bonds - a mixture that combines risk with security. Mr John Cunningham of Friends First reports a recent "surge of interest" in this type of structure, saying it appeals particularly to the "cautious investor in times of market crisis and volatility".

A less-flexible option is the "guaranteed bond" - a simple structure that guarantees a fixed return at the end of a set term. As Mr Cunningham points out, however, this guarantee is balanced by lower returns.

"Peace of mind comes from the price paid through more moderate returns and less flexibility when compared with shares or unit-linked style investing," he says.

A guaranteed product introduced recently by One Direct promises a gross return of 4.3 per cent every year for an investment of £3,000 (€3,809) or more - a return guaranteed regardless of future market performance.

If you're the type of investor that sees bonds as living up to their "boring" reputation, you could always go to the other extreme and consider a hedge fund.

While not exactly qualifying for a safe-haven award, hedge funds do nonetheless fulfil the alternative investment description in that they're not always linked to market fluctuation. A well-performing hedge fund will manage to balance its assets against adverse market movement by moving in and out of different instruments in an educated manner. This means that good returns should be achievable, even when the rest of the world is doing badly.

The potential for high rewards is good here but, equally, risks are considerable - this is only an option for the brave investor.

There is a safer solution for the less audacious savers out there, however: SSIAs will be on the table until the end of next April and is flexible enough to appeal even to the less moneyed investor. With a free £1 for every £4 saved, it's hard to argue that this isn't a good deal for cautious investors.

Ultimately, however, "cautious is a relative term", according to Mr Dan O'Donovan of Setanta Asset Management, who argues that not all equity investment involves massive risk. It just depends on how you manage it.

"The perspective one has to take when investing in equities is long-term and there are no two ways about it," he says. "You have to take a long-term perspective, advising against knee-jerk reactions as recently seen in airline and technology stocks."

So what makes a safe-haven investment in equities, or is it a contradiction in terms?

It's about going back to basics, according to Mr O'Donovan, who points to the old-economy favourite companies that provide for some of life's most fundamental needs.

Says Mr O'Donovan: "There are a couple of things people always do, irrespective of what else is going on - like eat."