BELFAST BRIEFING:Strategic trade visits have helped, but the recession is far from over, writes FRANCESS McDONNELL

THERE MAY be a potential £1 billion (€1.1 billion) policing and justice deal on the table for the North from the UK treasury.

The New York Stock Exchange is about to become Belfast’s official new best friend thanks to its plans to create 400 jobs.

There has also been a wave of local companies, from the likes of the Brunch Box Sandwich Company to aerospace firm Nacelle Systems Consultancy, that have delivered a sliver of new jobs recently.

Newry-based First Derivatives is also testimony to the fact that some Northern Ireland-owned companies with ambitious strategies can succeed regardless of the downturn.

It confirmed yesterday that it had made yet another significant acquisition in the US.

First Derivatives has acquired New Jersey-based software company the Reference Data Factory for a total consideration of up to a maximum of $10 million (€6.7 million).

There could also be positive results in the future from a recent trade visit hosted by Bombardier Aerospace in Belfast.

The high-powered delegation from the UK/China Aviation Working Group came to the North to explore potential business opportunities.

Taken at face value, these are all very welcome developments in Northern Ireland. If nothing else they provide a welcome distraction from the persistently gloomy clouds over the economy.

Investment boosts and strategic trade visits hold the promise of a new dawn when the recession finally releases its stranglehold on the local economy.

But in the meantime, there is little escape for the majority of businesses and workers from the reality of the economic downturn.

Official UK figures show the overall economy continued to contract in the third quarter.

This represents the sixth consecutive contraction and the first time in 54 years that the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) has repeatedly contracted.

The official figures were worse than expected and, although there is no regional breakdown for the North in terms of GDP figures, all the evidence points to a similar pattern on this side of the water.

The results of a recent business survey showed the performance of the North’s private sector continued to decline in September.

The Ulster Bank Northern Ireland purchasing managers’ indices revealed that both business activity and the level of new work won by firms fell again last month.

Richard Ramsey, Ulster Bank’s chief economist in the North, believes that even when the Northern economy eventually stops shrinking, the key challenge will be regaining the job losses and lost output.

“When the recession does end it will not mean that the pain is over.

“The economic and financial scars from this latest recession will be visible for many years,” Ramsey has warned.

New consumer research published this week shows that the pain factor is very much in evidence across the North.

The research shows that one in five people are pessimistic about job security.

Northern Bank, which published the results of the survey in its latest consumer confidence index, says there is strong evidence that any economic recovery in a local context is “very weak”.

Northern Bank economist Angela McGowan believes household confidence has improved over the year but admits that people remain very “cautious” about spending money.

McGowan says it is unlikely that there will be many big Christmas spending sprees by Northern Ireland consumers this year.

The Northern Bank research shows that expectations for spending on “big-ticket” items have declined.

The findings show that 36 per cent of those surveyed said they intended to spend less on high-value items such as holidays or furniture over the next 12 months.

For retailers this means the cross-Border shopping ticket will become even more important this year over the Christmas shopping period.

McGowan says the trend in Northern Ireland is to save rather than spend at this time.

“Households remain confident that interest rates will remain low in the year ahead and that their household finances will be further supported by recent price falls in areas such as food and drink as well as restaurants.

“While improving expectations for household finances will to some extent support non-discretionary spending in the months ahead, the outlook for spending on non-essential items remains fragile,” she adds.

Economist-speak aside, what Northern Ireland needs to find is a way to inject some confidence into the local economy.

The recession is frighteningly real, there is no escape from house-price fears, job worries, credit concerns and a challenging business environment in the North.

But there is an opportunity to build a level of resilience into the local economy, and the responsibility for doing this lies with local financial institutions, political leaders and business chiefs.

It’s time to get started on writing the road map for the North’s economy, and everyone has a part to play.